It really depends on the company's ATC of production to determine profit to reflect share price.
For instance the break even point for oil was stated at roughly $65 or so. Oil will probably increase in the short run because there are fewer alternatives so people have no choice but to buy it. but in the long run as alternative modes of energy (UCG, nuclear etc) become more popular, demand will subsequently fall with and thus will the price.
I personally think oil should be a priority in the next couple years because of this reason. Unless they can lower their production costs, which is often difficult to do, it won't be profitable in the long run
I don't really think phase one will dramatically affect the sp at this time, as there is currently excess amounts of natural gas around the world.
The rally to $5 was stated as overvalued in the short run because of the excess supply, but obviously in the long run, when we start implementing cleaner alternatives to coal and oil, demand will pick up again and the price of gas will appreciate
link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aiUK2YSomg7s&pos=14
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