Thank you for your post and observation about the price level. (This is going to be a long post, so please avoid reading if you are short of time, thanks !)
In cycle analysis, we use frequencies ( time ), amplitudes, phases as determinants of turning points rather than price levels to determine the failure or accuracy of CIT's projections. In dynamic cycles, we emphasize on a time window rather than a specific date. That is why we project that in all probabilities, the centre of the time window would be the low or top of a cycle, but as long as a turning point falls within that time window ( chord length of a top or bottom ), we will be happy with the projection.
Anyway, the turning point projection was for today 5th May and not 4th May.
So was there a turning point today in the XJO- 5th May?
Well,in the morning there were zero posts about a CIT occurring. But at the end of day, I did read a couple of posts saying a reversal has taken place today. I also read more posts expressing reservation and caution that there is much more to fall down to. So I approach this subject with a trembling hand:)
And the answer is still out there...you'll be the judge, and yes, again time will tell:)
Also perhaps I have talked too much about cycles, and have started to sound like an unbroken record, posting too much on the XJO in the charts forum...cycles, and cycles, and more cycles than is acceptable.
So I reckon a change of posting will be welcome relief to a lot of forumers...and while posting on the XJO, I'll revert to some classical fibonacci stuff --- that most traders prefer and are comfortable with... and do away with the cycles.
First, we talk about pattern, price and time in trading...but tonight, we'll talk only about pattern and price.
Are there any harmonic patterns that can booster our case for a temporary support and a rebound ( another way to say a bottom in a short term cycle)?...and if so at what price levels? ( A tiny bit of mention of cycles should be permissible though!)
On the 4th May ( yesterday) indeed, we find the XJO displaying a Gartley pattern, when this harmonic pattern was completed with the formation of the right wing and to the geometric dimensions and price levels as shown on the chart below. The completion of a gartley pattern usually heralds some support, either immediately or after a short holding period...so there was optimism that indeed there are chances that the 5th May cyclic low today might yet eventuate. Did a low eventuate today (5th May)? I leave it to the traders and analysts themselves to decide:) Note: All charts are updated to the 4th May, and not today.
Apart from the gartley pattern, we also saw another harmonic pattern achieved, this time to exact geometric proportions when leg AB=CD as shown in the chart at the close of trading on Wednesday 4th May, supporting our case for at least some temporary support and bottom ( perhaps!)
I'm never dogmatic, and so to inject a sense of balance and realism, what happens if the pattern did indeed failed- and to quote your kind self -that "XJO confirmed more downside rather than a turning point IMO".
To answer this possibility, there is yet another harmonic pattern in the larger time frame lurking in the background...which is a harmonic BAT pattern, with ominous lower price levels ahead. Here's the chart to delight those in the negative camp:)
There! I have made a post substantially on the XJO with as little discussion as possible without talking about much about cycles and specific dates...and hope I've done a reasonable job in creating these harmonic charts for your "entertainment" and enjoyment tonight. I also hoped many of you were fully entertained watching the XJO today in the light of my projected CIT :)
Have a great trading day tomorrow, and a pleasant weekend.
(20min delay)