you're right, it should be factored into current prices. but then its the gamble we do currently trying to work out how much of gloom is already figured in.
you've mentioned how you've got CFD to short TIM at the requisite time, nice move. i personally don't know much about CFD's except one goes to a seller of them like a bookie, and the CFD provider can decide not to take on the contract (so folks, if you're gonna do like watford, get in before too many others decide they want to do this).
i personally thought about getting back into TIM in Oct due to this conversion rush, not sure yet. cheap enough and the dodgiest company looks good (its like beer goggles for investors)
TIM Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held