I have recently broadened my scope of the future of tin. I don't...

I have recently broadened my scope of the future of tin. I don't trade futures contracts so end up in with the producers and accept the delays in profits due to them being announced in quarterlies... however doesn't mean I'm not very much keeping an eye on the big picture. The most interesting component is that our tin sales will be priced in USD.... and there is a correlation between the USD and Commodity prices as outlined below in simple terms.

"Typically, there is an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and commodity prices. When the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities tend to drop. When the value of the dollar weakens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities generally move higher. This is a general rule but it holds true more often than not over time."

Ok so here is the tin foil hat part.. and i don't think I'm crazy... but crazy people never do.

So with the pending tensions with the US, NK, Iran, Russia, Syria and then the correlated issues of Isreal, Iran, Palestine and Syria.. have all put downward pressure or atleast a question mark over the dominance of the US. Then add in the US Fed with their absolutely insane QE program and the overvalued stock markets that are basically divorced from reality (i think the Fed currently owns, directly or indirectly, 40% of US traded assets to prop up markets). Now lets through into the mix the impending debt ceiling decision next month which either results in government shut down or the US congress giving the Ok to doubling the US national debt. This has flow on effects that may result in the US actually paying countries more in interest then the economy generates.. potentially. Oh and trade wars with China to boot.

So add that into a giant "holy F**k" flavoured soup and there isn't much going for the mighty USD in the short term or medium term... I'm not switching my focus to watching the USD slide as I think that will trigger a huge re-rate in all commodities, tin included. Not as a result of supply and demand but as a economic reflection of the devalued medium of exchange (the USD). I suspect that other producers will do very well too.

If, and its a big if, we could see some seriously outrageous numbers for tin per tonne in the not to distant future.

Holding, waiting, watching.... with my tin foil hat.