Hope all the HODLers are well and y'all had a good weekends....

Hope all the HODLers are well and y'all had a good weekends.

I've spent some time looking through our Tin sector, and all its players. And I think I have an insight or two that may be worth sharing... but y'all be the judge.

Now, forgive me if any longtermers know any of this stuff, but its more for the large influx of newbies (like myself) that may still be researching.

here are some FACTS RE: Ozzie Tin sector:
- all of Australia's current Tin miners/explorers are in the SC stage - under $250mil - (except possibly MIN, but they don't produce tin yet, nor are they likely to ever produce a significant volume), and any other large companies that produce tin don't pump out large volumes at all.

- Here is a link to 'ALL TIN MINERS' stock ticker, worth having a look at Mrkt Caps, for comparison - https://*********.com.au/sector/#tin

- so there is no real 'heirarchy' or 'market dominance' of tin miners out there, like we see in the IO sector... yet.... (but Tin is a 'critical metal', like IO, so we could well see a hierarchy rise over the 2020's).

A quick prediction - I believe 'Top Dog' tin miner by 2026 will end up being MLX, based on their control of Renison (the biggest tin mine), but VMS very well could be '2nd Dog', based on how far they are ahead of the competition:

- Leaving out MLX (whom are already in production), of all the dedicated tin mining explorers out there now, none have advanced their projects as far as VMS has with Mt. Lindsay (and Lindsay is still 24 months E.D.C, so everyone else is well behind). All the other dedicated tin players are still drilling, doing MET work, or getting Gov. approvals, all of which VMS had completed before 2021. Also, a few of them don't have a 100% stake in their claims and/or sizeable deposits. (VMS has both).

-The closest competitor explorer VMS had was Kasbah (KAS) - with a similar Mrkt Cap, similar progress and a similar deposit ...but they ran out of cash last year, then de-listed from the ASX in Q3 2020... https://www.listcorp.com/asx/kas/kasbah-resources/news/voluntary-delisting-from-asx-removal-request-decision-2340355.html

.... tin mining is capital intensive folks, and clearly breaks companies....

- MLX's cashflow and debt is also a bit questionable, they have had to sell off copper assets recently to make loan repayments...
Copper sale - https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210331/pdf/44v4pq7c1sq3y9.pdf
Loan repayment - https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210414/pdf/44vjqdq681cd3q.pdf

SO, the sector is still very uncharted, and every prediction I look at for future Tin demand, shows that we are going to need a butt load of tin output in the 2020s (VMS's and MLX's investor presentations both provide enough evidence and sources to prove that) and Australia looks to be a solid provider for that demand, like it is for many other critical metals. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210506/pdf/44w88mrq4nlqpq.pdf

- And as far as production volume to meet consumption- VMS plans 10-12kt p.a over 8 years... and also MLX plans 10-12kt p.a, but over 10 years.

- MLX might sit on the bigger depsoit (680kt), but their estimated output is almost identical, so its safe to assume their revenue will also be. VMS, however, will be self funded and sitting on IO profits, and MLX is in debt...

- So, MLX basically has 24 months, to get their act together and sort out cash flow, before VMS goes into production, in order to cement a dominant sector position (its possible they will achieve that, but not certain).

- And all other explorers are so far behind both MLX and VMS, that we are looking at 4 years before the sector is populated by more than two companies pumping out large Tin volumes.

- There is one risk variable I've noticed though; I call it the "Lithium/Tin connection" - There are many of these early stage Tin explorers that are also significant Lithium producers, both of which are needed by the E.V/Battery Cell manufacturers. Therefore I see a likelihood for some competitive deals/agreements between manufacturers and the miners that produce both resources, especially if the sector heats up significantly.

MOO, DYOR, GLTAH.

Thanks for making it to the end.