tin price prediction, page-2

Market Nuggets: BNP Paribas: Tin May Have To Rise Further To Fill Supply/Demand Gap
06 December 2010, 10:48 a.m.
By Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) -- A recent rise in LME tin inventories was likely temporary and the price may have to rise well beyond the recent highs to bring supply and demand in line, says BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs in a research report. The price may have to escalate so as to choke off demand through substitution and even outright rationing, he says. In such a heady, even scary environment, it is hard to say how far the tin price can rise. BNP recently forecast an average price of $28,000 a metric ton in 2011, $30,250 in the fourth quarter of 2011 and $32,000 in 2012. But even these figures may be conservative, Briggs says. Tin peaked around $27,500 on Nov. 9 before correcting lower as LME stocks rose. The likely explanation for this is release of stockpiled material into the Chinese market, Briggs says. Still, he says, world tin demand is strong, likely to rise nearly 16% for a 2010 as a whole. Meanwhile, producers are having trouble keeping up with the demand, with world mine output to be flat at best this year, Briggs says. He says what are really needed are some sizeable new mines, of which there are none in the near term.