and so it continues......Tin shipments from Indonesia, the...

and so it continues......

Tin shipments from Indonesia, the largest exporter, may drop 19 percent this year, according to the trade ministry, adding to signs of a slump in trade that?s helped make the commodity this year?s best base-metal performer.

Exports may plunge to about 80,000 metric tons in 2010 from 99,287 tons in 2009 as heavy rains disrupt mining, said Alberth Tubogu, export director for mining and industry products at the trade ministry. That?s in line with an August forecast from Indonesia?s energy ministry for a 20 percent decline in output.

Macquarie Group Ltd. warned earlier this month that global tin supply may lag behind usage ?through next year at least,? bolstering prices. Tin futures on the London Metal Exchange have rallied to the highest price since July 2008, driven by the fall in supplies from Indonesia, lower stockpiles and rising demand.

?Some producers may use their inventory to increase sales now that the price is gaining but I doubt it will help much,? Tubogu said by phone. ?I spoke with exporters last week and they said they don?t have a lot of tin in stockpiles, especially the small smelters, after heavy rain reduced ore supplies.?

Tin, used to make packaging and as solder, has advanced about 39 percent in London this year, beating second-placed nickel?s 35 percent jump. The contract, which reached a record $25,500 a ton in May 2008, peaked at $23,600 on Sept. 17 and traded today at $23,550.

Inventories of tin in LME warehouses stood at 13,625 tons on Sept. 17, down 49 percent this year. The global tin deficit may be 17,000 tons this year compared with a surplus in 2009, according to a Macquarie report from analysts including Jim Lennon this month.

Indonesia?s tin output may plunge about 20 percent this year to about 85,000 tons as wet weather disrupts mining, Witoro Soelarno, secretary to the director-general of minerals, coal and geothermal at the energy ministry, said on Aug. 11.