Apologies for the sh#t pics，however I'm having to adapt to using a POS Samsung mobile phone, due to the fact that my trading platform is completely isolated from social media, and the inadvertent death of my prior 'phone...
These are VERY basic pics, however the daily shows the appearance of supply wicks over the last few days, with the majority of VWAP being around. 37c ( will try to add IRESS time series and trade analysis on my next post), and a 50 fib around 33.5, which also coincides with the Lt support.
This chart uses a daily 6 and 21day VAWMA, with a 30 ema, however I also use 15, 45min, 2hrly, daily , and weekly charts concurrently on tradingview, with numerous other momentum and volume ma indicators.
I don't usually don't try to predict future behaviour as I'd rather be reactive, however I would LIKE to see a 33.5-.34 strike, however .36 too hits the 20 VAWMA, which the current behaviour likes to bounce off, so a reversal from .36 is not surprising.
A slight push to close at .38 tomorrow also looks possible, but wicking and volumes show that sellers seem to be churning into strength at present, with some buying around. 365.
With the price appearing to be flattening, the RBA holding rates, $1.25 trillion worth of puts on the S&P ( lost call heat map, so cannot show new alpha) , PLUS a huge amount of overseas data due this week, the market just looks too nervous after 3 really strong months, and the threat of consistently sticky inflation, a pullback to .33/335 does look probable.
I would not be shorting MLX at all, but rather waiting for a more orderly j curve bottoming behaviour and loo to add.
IF,we see some sort of liquidity black swan, then .275-.285 is probably the last time we see this level and I suggest you prepare to sell your liver, in order to back up the truck..
So, TLDR, 33.5 /34. looks good, but a slight uptuck to .38 tomorrow, THEN a pullback to. 36 is also possible, but other world data too can cause a melt up or down, as this time, it really IS different.
Data calendar:
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
(20min delay)