Tin's future..., page-8

Tin in the News

The LME tin price ended yesterday at US$16,550 after fluctuating in the upper $16,000s for most of the week. The rise to the late March price high of $17,625 was strongly supported by speculators and it is likely that the lower price level we are now seeing is at least partially an adjustment relating to technical trading at the end of the quarter. As discussed in this week's news, Indonesian tin exports are expected to rise substantially this month to compensate for restricted export activity in Q1; in isolation this may provide some limited downside risk to prices over the next month or two.

This week we also cover reconciliatory talks between Minsur and a local community, who recently blocked access to the San Rafael mine, recent publications relating to the iTSCi programme are also discussed with download links provided.

Tom Mulqueen - Analyst, Markets

Follow us at twitter.com/ITRItin

Another slow month for Indonesian exports


6 April: Preliminary figures released by the trade ministry to news agencies today showed that March tin exports from Indonesia were only 2,719 tonnes, down by 61% compared to March 2015. The data is consistent with the volume of refined tin traded on the ICDX last month, which was 2,655 tonnes (531 lots of 5 tonnes). The latest ministry data is based on checks carried out by surveying companies prior to shipment and includes small quantities of solder and tin products as well as tin ingot. The 12-month rolling total of shipments has now dropped to 60,177 tonnes, the lowest on record since the ministry's export licencing and monitoring system began in 2007.

The very low March figure is not a surprise, given that exports have been constrained by a variety of factors including monsoon flooding, smelter audits and difficulties and delays in renewing export permits. However it looks like there will be a significant revival in sales in April, signalled by a sharp increase in trading volumes on the ICDX in the last few days. The first four trading days of this month have seen sales of 2,585 tonnes (517 lots), which is likely to mainly reflect some major producers obtaining new export permits.