As of right now, PXS has a market cap of around $70mill, no...

As of right now, PXS has a market cap of around $70mill, no servicable debt (no debt repayments to make), and cash of approximately $60mill, suggesting a rough EV of around $10mill. In other words, the market is valuing the PXS pipeline, future Boehringer NASH payments, future Boehringer COPD payments (= potentially another $750mill) bronchitol (in the context of rising EU sales), patents, everything, at only $10mill. With phase I of PXS4728A nearing completion, it is pretty much a certainty that phase II will be initiated by Boehringer in the not too distant future. This act – i.e., just initiating phase II – will trigger another milestone payment. How much? PXS have announced that initiation of phase II and and phase III will trigger combined payments of 55mill euros or around A$80mill. My guess, is that PXS will receive around $25mill just for initiating phase II.

With rising Bronchitol sales and falling costs keeping cash burn to a minimum (my calcs suggest that PXS will burn through $10-12mill over the next 12 months, before becoming solidly profitable on EU sales by 2018), it is probable that by the middle of next year PXS will have around $75mill in cash; yet right now it has a market cap of only $70mill. So at it's current share price, PXS is possibly in negative EV teritory taking a 1 year outlook (and this is a company that *on bronchitol sales alone* is likely to be generating $10-20mill profits by 2018 going forward)

While PXS4728A remains a live option (in NASH, COPD, and other diseases), and with further milestone and earn out payments a high probability, and with Bronchitol sales rising (and likely to rise significantly), IMO fair value for PXS at present would be an EV of around of around $80-100mill, which, depending on your cash burn and risk assumptions, suggests a market cap of around $140-170mill or 44-54c/share.

My guess is that the only reason the share price hasn't taken off today because Australian Ethical are exiting the stock for reasons that have nothing to do with the company's outlook. Once Aus Ethical are out completely, I'd expect PXS to settle at around the 40c mark.