Sorry, one of the affects of using a mobile phone.Just for...

Sorry, one of the affects of using a mobile phone.

Just for clarity, I 'trust' broker financial forecasts 'somewhat', but they often have an 'overconfidence future bias', notice how their assumptions two years out often seem more rosy than the historical movement in numbers. Having said this, it is much more efficient for me to use their numbers and 'reduce' a bit for exuberance, than for me to try to do detailed modelling of the future financials.

Broker 'target prices' I think are complete nonsense. They are a marketing tool, and can be created out of thin air. (I am getting old, but the old joke in an investment company: "Junior Analyst instruction from institutional deal maker: create the model to justify the price, don't justify the price from the model, you want that promotion, figure it out, just get me my deal price")

Using consensus earnings forecast is both good and bad (i often check though against consensus).
Good because it represents more of a 'medium'
Bad because can sometimes catch outliners (especially have to be weary of the brokers who are doing the institutional work for the company, both their 'broker targets' and their future earnings forecasts will be at risk of being a lot more rosy to put it kindly.

Depending on the size of my position (bigger position, more work), I tend to use review the forecast financials from analysts from several brokers (ignoring any broker that does the institutional work). I use my own valuation models, but plug in their forecasts to obtain my own 'target price'.

Hope this helps,
And your line of thinking is great.