Copied from my original post in the other thread/where this discussion began.
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Dx probably around $1k (~100 uses). Maybe there will be a couple hundred uses, but IMO signs point that it's just not seeing much use. Main things I'll be interested to find out is the clinician uptake rate, and if it's low (which I assume it is) whether the company thinks this could be a similar issue going forward with international Telehealth services, and whether there needs to be some external marketing push to clinicians to encourage adoption (beyond leaving it up to the Telehealth providers themselves).
SleepCheck will be the main revenue source this quarter. I think we can safely say it's definitely sold at least several hundred times in Australia. Beyond that it gets more complicated. For instance how many downloads did we get when there was that nine coverage that saw it jump to #1 (paid apps), 10-30 downloads (as this is all that would be needed AFAIK)? 100 downloads? 1000 downloads? much more? As well as factoring in the other markets, as it's consistently ranked fairly well in other markets too, but hard to get good data on what kind of numbers to expect from them. I think a conservative estimate would place revenue somewhere in the $10k-20k range, but if it was more I wouldn't be surprised (whereas I would be quite surprised if Dx does very well, even though I'd love it to).
Either way my expectations are quite low, even though I'd love to see a booming start I think it's a bit naive (especially given a bunch of factors right now) to expect that. What I'm more interested in for now is their strategy for growth, how deals with other Telehealth providers are doing, how Ilara is progressing (I believe they'll have to be making a decision sometime in December-January as around then will likely be the 3 months after they've received the devices; even though Ilara will be a cost-effective subscription I'm expecting this could very well be our largest Dx revenue source in the very near term if they go ahead), how RB is going (though this is much longer away), etc. While my main interest for revenue is where will it be at 3-5 years from now, not these starting commercialisation years.
I know going off others expectations this probably comes across as downramping (I mean my estimates are below that I've seen some frequent downrampers suggest lol) but that's not my intention, I'm just rather conservative with my own estimates is all. Regardless of this quarter's results my sentiment is still the same as I'm very bullish and long on RAP.
