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03/07/19
02:57
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Originally posted by airconditioner:
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Apologies if I was dismissive. I didn't honestly didn't see a question in what you wrote. I just replied to asb with some detail around primarily Chinese demand and auto industry and the fact that our client has doubled their capacity. My read on the situation is that there are now 500 Chinese and western EV manufacturers there. VW, GM, Tesla are amongst dozens of new entrants. New supply that has come on this year will utimately seen to be swallowed whole by the converter expansions that are temporarily causing shipment disruptions. Read the PLS announcements and the stuff about Yahua to get a feel for what has been going on. 2019 supply has not seen a massive increase in production. All new miners fudged their estimates of recovery, costs and timelines. The proposed tsunami from SQM was BS. Chile investments from POSCO and Albemarle have been abandoned or on the way-back-burner. Albemarle got cold feet at Wodgina. No news on Pilbara expansions and other problems to solve their first. KDR not happening any time soon. Neither SQM nor Wesfarmers are experienced hard rock miners. Only Greenbushes expansion to look forward to in Australia over the next couple of years and that is soaked by their own local conversion, potentially placing more starving converters back on the market hungry to bid for spodumene. A couple of new brine operations coming in Argentina in next couple of years. Nemaska delayed. Very little from the rest of the world. Sentiment has sapped the prospects of many of the juniors. I still see 2020 as the year in which we start seeing parity price EVs. Which is sort of why I thought 6 months ago - ah to hell with posting in 2019. By 2020 all the argey bargey will be over. And once that happens, EVs sell themselves, ICE is over and we will need to redraw all those demand graphs. GXY sp tomorrow does not interest me so I am the wrong one to talk to. You may see a lithium cycle with further to fall. I see we area already at a point at which at least 2-3 of the WA spodumene miners are struggling already. If one goes out of business then its all on. That is how closely we are too bidding wars happening again. Take over potential is also very high at this point with so much cash in the bank. Wesfarmers would be kicking themselves now. LYC bid has likely failed. POSCO have saved $1b from abandoning Chile. Another likely suitor. Still. How does a take over succeed when there are still 10% short positions? The price would over shoot immediately as holders recognise they can get much higher from them. That would require a counter bid etc. Then all holders get greedy. I think those who think we'd go cheaply are seriously wrong.
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GXY share price going up or down does not interest me also. I still believe in the EV revolution. I think GXY will survive so I will keep topping up to the bottom. Once bottom is reached then we we will go up. I dare shorters to bring it as low as they can. Game on. This company has to be worth something.