Jules,
All depends on perspective I suppose. Your previous posts on ORE make it clear you are a potash skeptic, an Argentina skeptic and so unsuprisingly you only see Sovereign risk not opportunity. But thanks for your thoughts.
Throwing around the word Nationalisation don't necessarily make it so. Are all foreign companies being escorted out of Brazil and all industries being nationalised? I don't think so. The link between Brazil protecting their agricultural independence by reversing an ill-advised recent fertiliser project sale during a world supply shortage and a lithium brine in Argentina is what...?
Much more likely is that if lithium becomes super-profitable then sure, higher royalties and other profit sharing legislation are possible. There is risk no question, but without any Argentine evidence or threats nationalisation is simply another baseless downramp.
You speak with major insto holders of SQM hey? I have my doubts but so what! You know someone who invests heavily in multi-billion dollar companies but doesn't like ORE? Or you know someone who invests in a multi-billion dollar Chilean company but not in one Argentina? Well someone invests in the multi-billion dollar FMC company with an Argentine lithium mine..... so your point is?
I agree in part that Soveriegn risk is a problem for ORE, in as much as it is the only problem. A discount to the enormous value it would be worth in say Arizona but not a complete write-off I would say. What is the market value of ORE above cash ATM.... about $5M aussie pesos... haha laughable. I think it obviously has some upside, Argentina or not. Argentina will never use the lithium carbonate directly so quite dfferent to Brazilean fertiliser.
Cornerstone investors want it up and running to break the SQM - FMC lithium oligopoly and as long as they get the off-take rights and security of supply they won't care about sharing more profit with Argentina. I think we are getting ahead of ourselves though, increased royalties from a super-profitable future lithium mine will be the problem for major institutions not us penny dreadful punters. Know ones place in the investment cycle.
GXY is a high cost spodumene mine, it isn't even competing with the brine lithium producers. The cost base of extracting and processing spodumene is so high IMO when lithium prices drop into this recession Mt Cattlin will become uneconomic and get mothballed. I have a preference for investing in world class, lowest quartile production with a small dose of sovereign risk rather than safe but too expensive to make money deposits.
goodluck
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Jules,All depends on perspective I suppose. Your previous posts...
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