How 3-D Printers Could Erase a Quarter of Global Trade by 2060...

How 3-D Printers Could Erase a Quarter of Global Trade by 2060

An industry in its infancy could become more viable with time, ING writes
By
Jeanna Smialek
October 4, 2017, 3:29 AM GMT+11
From

Critics of global trade might find something to celebrate in the advent of 3-D printing.

Raoul Leering, head of international trade analysis at at ING, writes that growth in 3-D printing could wipe out almost one-quarter of cross-border trade by 2060. His review of the technology’s landscape kicks off this week's economic research wrap, which also touches on innovation clusters, attitudes about men and women in the American workplace, and the demographics of art spending. Check back each week for a rundown of new and pertinent economic studies.

Printing away trade flows

If high-speed 3-D printing makes mass production using the tool viable, it could cause major disruption to the global flow of goods, Leering writes. About half of manufactured good could be printed by 2060 if the current growth of investment in the technology persists, he estimates. That would cut world trade by a quarter, because it would require less labor and reduce the need to import intermediate and final goods from low-wage countries. That could cause trade deficits to narrow for major importers, though countries with a trade surplus could suffer.

That’s Leering’s slow-growth scenario. If investment ramps up, doubling every five years, he guesses that as much as two-fifths of global trade could disappear. His estimates are uncertain (there is no data on the value of 3-D printed products and related services worldwide, and the technology hasn’t yet evolved to the point that it’s enabling mass production), but they highlight that there’s potential for disruption.


3D Printing: A Threat to Global Trade