Some of what you say is true, however time is the enemy. right...

Some of what you say is true, however time is the enemy. right now the Supreme court delays any further announcements. Gvan made a point that these Supreme court decisions in the past have take 1 Month with the longest so far being 4 months. We ae only soon coming to that first month period and 4 months will take us to the end of February.

The first approval on the mining permit and the processing plant hardly made a blip on the charts. Rejection of the first mining permit appeal did likewise.
I suspect that even when the Supreme court rejects the final appeal I wouldn't count on any significant SP increase, I think that another blip is more likely.

Why because there is a lack of interest at this stage from serious buyers. When China made to graphite announcement investor services hardly mentioned TLG. Even though several other graphite companies were featured, we flew under the radar with all but a few analysts.

Hard to sign an off-take agreement when you cannot decide a price this far ahead. Still pending is 1st Dec export permit confusion which will only slowly start to rear its head over a period that could be measured in multiple months, Will the companies you mentioned as off-take partners be affected by the export permits? If not, I imagine that in the short term they will continue to source graphite products cheaply from China. Sure they will be thinking ahead, but when will they take action?

Will TLG be eager to sign quick off-take agreements with the graphite price ex-china so low. Even when these off-take agreement eventually surface I doubt that the details of price, quantity and revenue will be disclosed publicly, but held in confidence so as not to influence further agreements. Sure they will announce that we have signed and off-take agreement with a company and may even disclose the period that this agreement covers. However it will be when we start to see the production/ shipped quantities and revenue from customers in the quarterly reports will be able to really ascertain what's happening. 2025-2026?


The start of groundworks and infrastructure is to commence in the spring of 2024 for the processing plant. With the building and fit-out still to come followed by commissioning to start-up phase. So 2025 or longer before product delivery to customers. With PLS the start of the rise of SP was linked to shipment and revenue increasing quarter by quarter in the reports..


Exactly who will be denied graphite export permission and what will be the counter response politically. Good luck with your fundamental analysis with the guesswork of the course of events and the timing of this.

I watch the fundamentals but for me the first acid test will show up in the charts with 10WMA. For 37 weeks the 10WMA has been in decline regardless of the recent approval news. When the 10WMA decline levels out and starts to rise it will herald the start of significant buyers beginning to arrive. This rise needs to be sustained not just a bump and then into decline again as has happened in the past.

I don't fight the charts. I have learnt that lesson many time before.

The only kind of news that can force a momentous effect of the SP is a Takeover offer and neither the fundamentals or the charts can predict that.

As to the effect of HC charters post has on the SP of a stock. I believe that the effect should be likened to a butterfly farting into the Freemantle doctor wind when it arrives daily for stock like PLS. For TLG it would be like a camels fart, lots of noise and may turn a few heads but miniscule effect.

The only time I have seen charters affect the SP is surrounding unfilled gaps. But these gaps can be seen by every charter interested in a company, shorters especially, so the effect doesn't stem from HC but from everyone who pays attention to the chart.

Just my opinions, so DYOR.

cheers Lies.

PS The 37 week 10WMA has declined 33%.