Hi FolksIt's the second days trading into to my theoretical...

Hi Folks

It's the second days trading into to my theoretical "silly season" I mentioned in my previous post

The first season "bullish" lasts for 2 week, opened after the CR record date last week and open up until the close of trading on the loyalty option record date 6 Sep. As I mentioned in previous posts any buying holding until the record date entitles the holder to 1 for 8 loyalty options. I mentioned that it could be treated like a call option strategy. Any sellers during this first bullish season are forgoing there loyalty options which can be exercised at 55c any time up until mid Sep 2025. As I described early some buyers can purchase shares and hold until record date and then sell in the period after that date and still be entitled to the options. If they sell lower than the buy-in price their have a CGT loss up their sleave and still retain the loyalty option. If they sell higher than the buy-in price they make a profit (could be eligible for CGT) but still retain the options,

In the first two days we have seen the shares trade jump already into the 39.5-45c range so there does seem to be some demand from buyers and understandably a lack of sellers, as they want a premium for their shares.

There is still 8 TD's of this bullish season to go. Just watching todays trading action I suspect that TLG has attracted some day traders. An ideal set up for day traders with a carrot on a stick for a two weeks period. So I expect volatility during almost every days trading with surges and pullbacks as happened today with a surge to 45 followed by an final auction retrace on small volumes to 43.

I fully expect that sometime during this bullish season for rumours of a SC decision imminent to surface to help boost things along. The rise in just two days to 45 is a considerable move which made me examine the chart shown below. I thought that a move into the low 40's was on the cards but that's changing. There is a previous peak at 48.5 (pink dotted line) which is now not so far away.

I have also drawn the FIB 23.6% and 38.2% on the charts and if this first bullish period has legs, cannot be ignored. So I suppose it depends on how much FOMO is generated. Interesting times.

The second bearish season begins the week following the 6 Sep record date. For buyers there is no loyalty options attached anymore, so what will happen to buyer demand?

While for those who bought during the "bullish season" and want sell to recover some of their money either at a profit or to lock in a CGT loss its the time for action.

Could be a bit like Sydney accommodation prices during the Taylor Swift concerts and the prices a week later when things get back to normal.

So I wonder how much of a change will occur in the closing SP between Friday 6 Sep and Friday 13 Sep, I am unsure. I am sure that the change will be Swift.

More importantly where will the SP be on Melbourne cup day two months after the loyalty record date? That will depend on the Swedish SC.

Just my opinions so DYOR.

cheers Lies

PS the next month is not going to be boring.