TLG 3.95% 36.5¢ talga group ltd

Previous high is not a good indicator, as there were...

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    Previous high is not a good indicator, as there were significantly less shares on issue then.

    For example $2.33 with 1,000 share float is equivalent to $1.16 with 2,000 share float (due to SPP dilution).

    (SPP has not doubled the share float, but you catch my drift)

    As to the options - here is how I see it
    • If I buy 80,000 shares next week on Weds 4th Sept at $0.40 = $32k cost
    • I sell them on Thursday 5th Sept and receive back my outlay (though in theory it should drop by the value of the options)
    Net outlay will be zero - 1 day hold.

    On 6th September, I receive 10,000 " Loyalty Options" at $0.55. (I still love that Talga named them Loyalty Options as it means them my reward for being so loyal - despite not participating in the CR)
    • If no SC decision, I expect the share price to be much lower than it is now ~ maybe 20 cents as you suggest. I think lower. In this case I preserve all capital

    • If SC decision occurs, and share price jumps to $1.50, I have my options that I buy at $0.55 and make $0.95, though would continue to hold

    My biggest fear is the instos are going to be playing the same strategy, so there could be a significant drop on the ex options date (which makes sense, just as a share price drops on the ex dividend date by the value of the divvy)

    I'm most concerned if they couldn't even raise $5M at $0.38, as that suggests to me that the instos are likely going to seek capital preservation strategies
    Last edited by tt2000: 28/08/24
 
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