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19:23
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Originally posted by Lies&damnlies:
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Hi GvanThe good news is that data from the last 3 years shows that we are at the tail end of this process. In previous years, pending cases that are older than 6 months make up 9 to 10%. There is a strong drop off for pending cases older than 12 months: 0.9% Talga has just crossed 11 months (if going by the original date, and not considering the power of attorney delays). 0.9% implies odds of 111/1 in statistical terms this is called an Outlier. What was it about that case that turned it into and outlier? Was there a lot of adjournments seeking further information? Throwing up a coin every month for 7 months coming down tails 7 times in a row is odds of 128/1. So the two are in the same ballpark.
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Those odds are why i have loaded up. The market may also see those odds are worth taking. It will be sorted sooner or later regardless of how the SP performs. Long term holders looking at eventual new highs and then blue sky may be happy to lock in.
(20min delay)