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manny100

5,639 Posts.

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01/09/24

09:02

Post #: 75473721
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Originally posted by Lies&damnlies: ↑

Hi Folks

Many comments have been made about my coin toss odds 50/50 of the SC decision in 2024 vs 2025.

I calculate my odds on the basis that I am equally likely to take both sides of the odds offered. Like going to a two up game , if someone yells I am back a tails and I want a bet on heads I hand him my bet. If someone yells I am backing a heads and I want a bet tails then I take the bet,

The argument of 0% chance based on the theory of a 3 year of SC decisions has so many holes in it.

A height of 6m was regarded as impossible (0% chance) in pole vaulting. However, Sergii Bubka cleared this height for the first time in June 1985.

At some time his sponsor Nike offered $US40,000 for each new world record in which the bar was raised by 1cm. Did each new world record have 0% chance because historically it had never been done before. He collected that prizemoney 14 times raising the world record to 6.14m.

That record stood for a long time but was broken in the last Olympic's despite the 0% chance of it being done.

Olympics historically since 1896 was either divisible by 4 or not held. 0% chance of an Olympic's being held or not held where these rules didn't apply.
For 31 Olympics this held true then came Tokyo 2021.

The oldest verified human life span is current 122y 164day. Do all current humans over 100 years old have 0% chance of beating this record or are they all going to die beforehand.

Wait a minute the current record holder beat the previous record holder, who beat the previous record holder , who beat the previous record holder and so on.

0% chance is meaningless if it based on historical data or what's happened before.

If you asked me to frame some odds of the SC decision falling in 2024, after no decision has come forward on the 5 Dec 2024 (shortened month because of Christmas) my odds would be about 8/1.
On Melbourne cup day 5 Nov about 3/1., Oct 5 about 5/4 and currently about 1/1.

Last weeks "bullish silly season" seems to be playing out to my expectations with 46c being the high of the week up 15% on the 40c on offer in the previous week.

I'll cover that with a chart and a bit of my opinions in a follow up post. Still 5 more trading days to go of this Silly season.

DYOR

cheers Lies

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IMO its more about locking in what you see as a profit based on what you see as the future SP.
If the current SP falls significantly you can top up.
For LT holders riding the humps and bumps is just part of the journey..
One 100% certainty is each day that passes is one day closer to the eventual SC decision.

TLG Price at posting: 43.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

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