Hi FolksA while ago I posted about my expected "Silly season"...

Hi Folks

A while ago I posted about my expected "Silly season" with a bullish silly season component to be followed by a bearish silly season.

I have posted a daily chart to provide a visual representation followed by a weekly chart to examine long term trend.

* CR offered existing shareholders, holding shares on the 26 July, up to $30,000 worth of shares at 38c with the offer closing on 23 Aug (pink vertical line). Share issued 29 Aug. Anyone taking up the offer would be entitled to 1 Loyalty option for every 8 shares purchased in the credit raised if shares are held to the Loyalty option record date 6 Sep.
So for $30,000 at 38c that's 78,947 shares and 9,868 Loyalty options if held to record date.

Notice the black horizontal line covering the period 4 TD's before the CR offer closing date at 40c. So any new shareholder could easily buy shares in this period at a 2c premium to the CR. Any existing shareholder wanting more than the limited $30,000 CR offer could buy more shares at the same price 40.
Buying in this period would entitle them to Loyalty option, but at this time they would have no idea if the CR offer would be fully subscribed.

Bullish silly season, 26 Aug , CR offer closed any sellers for the next 10 TD would be missing out on Loyalty options and would require a SP premium for doing so. So in the first week the SP peaked at 46 which was 15% higher than the 40c available in those 4 TD's the week before. So there was some pent up demand for the shares with Loyalty options attached.

The second week of the bullish silly season is underway and so far the high is 46.5c on my chart I have 48c as a maybe.

Bearish silly season begins on 9 Sep (after the close of the Loyalty option record date on the 6 Sep) however Loyalty options not issue issued until the 13 Sep and in an announcement the company did say it was watching trading during that week. So the first week may be only mildly bearish, however from the 16 Sep in my opinion the bears will begin roar.

Why? no loyalty options attached for buyers, share dilution because of the CR ($18.5m raised), sellers using the call option tactic can cash in profits or lock in CGT losses depending on the selling price.

Of course the bear can be shot at anytime by a SC decision which raises the question of Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec or longer?

Something just food for thought. So far buyers have chased the price from CP 38 or 40 (for those 4 TD"s) to so far 46.5 for options.
Those options must be exercised before 13 Sep 2025 at a cost of 55c per option of they are worthless.
Those CR buyers for $30,000 at 38c will have 9,868 options and will have to pay a total cost of $5427 to end up with listed shares. Total cost $35,427 for 84,374 shares at an average price of 42c.
If during this ongoing bearish period with no SC decision the SP reaches 34c ( only a 10% discount on the CR price) $30,000 will buy 88,235 with no expiry date and no further payment due. More than the CR and options combined.
In my opinion so DYOR we reach Melbourne cup day without that bear being shot then by the SC then a 15% discount on the CR price is not out of the question.

Finally there is currently and unfilled daily gap at 29-30, could that be filled in 2025 if we still have a live bear roaming.

Life span of the bear? I have no idea but he does not have a 0% chance of seeing the Melbourne Cup.

Things look different on the second weekly chart as far as overall trend is concerned with both the 10WMA and 40WMA falling steadily.

DYOR

cheers Lies