I think you're conflating the general position of Europe with Sweden. The two are intertwined from a national security perspective, but are in very different situations with regards to energy.
In terms of the conflict with Russia, I think the focus on the kinetic war is generally overblown. I don't foresee major escalation beyond the Ukrainian theatre (at least not in the next several years). And, I think the real battle will be won or lost in markets. The West is trying to restrict Russia's access to manufactured goods and parts (many of which are critical to maintaining Russian logistics and manufacturing). Russia is tryinng to restrict European access to energy and global access to food and fertilizer.
While I'm hoping the West prevails, objectively, I think Russia has the upper hand right now. Putin seems content playing out this war of attrition, and it's not hard to see why. As mentioned previously, the energy situation in Germany this coming winter looks dire. Spain, Italy, and Greece are in danger of credit spreads blowing out and defaulting on their national debts without intervention from the ECB. The Euro is tanking. It's looking bleak for the E.U. this winter. I think it could get so bad they're forced to the negotiating table with Putin - where they'll have to make concessions they never thought they would in order to get the power turned back on.
Paradoxically though, I view all of this to be a tailwind for Talga, for a number of reasons:
- The Nordic region has access to cheap, abundant, green hydroelectric power and is therefore relatively immune to the energy crisis on the continent. In fact, FREYR and Northvolt look well positioned to profit from increasing energy costs on the continent, because lower energy costs will be a huge strategic advantage for them.
- This entire experience is proving to be a major kick in the ass for the E.U. in terms of reducing their dependence on foreign natural resources. The E.U. is paying the price for spending the last decade blocking new natural resource projects on "environmental" grounds (makes no sense b/c they import from countries with lower standards - NIMBYism). This ordeal with Russia is likely to lead to a 180 in public sentiment and generate the political will for Talga to get permitted for larger production capacities for 2025 and beyond.
- Northvolt and FREYR are likely to prioritize local supply (perhaps even pay a premium) to protect their business from disruptions due to geopolitical tensions. Talga is the only soup-to-nuts anode operation in Europe on target to reach production by 2025. A partnership between these three is - more clearly than ever before - in the best interest of all parties involved.
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