To be clear, I think they have the upper hand today. In the long-run, it is easier for Europe to solve its problem (a shortage of energy and natural resources) than it is for Russia to solve its problem (reliance on the West for critical components to maintain railways, airplanes, factories, etc.). In the short-run though, energy is king. When energy costs soar, businesses go under, people can't afford luxury goods or eating out, it's absolutely crushing.
"You hear about the problems in the West because the West allows journalists to report problems. However terrible it gets in Russia"
I'm aware of the problems in Russia. It won't be long before their Boeing-777's and Airbuses are grounded, because they can't get spare parts. Same problem with the railways. Off-shore oil wells are beginning to shutdown without Western parts. List could go on.
No one wins in war. One side suffers more than the other. In the short-term, I think that will be the E.U. Unfortunately (emphasis on not what I want), I think it may get so bad this winter that the E.U. is forced to the negotiating table.
" We have so much LNG. It will take a couple of years to reconfigure the supply lines to hit the EU, but we will survive."
This is a short-run vs long-run thing. In the long-run, the E.U. has lots of options. Nuclear, for one. LNG from the U.S. Africa has Natural Gas resources if they build pipelines. There's even some Nat gas resources in Europe that only remain untapped, because the NIMBY's block them for "environmental" reasons.
TLG Price at posting:
$1.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)