No one is saying delays are done. Getting a mine started is a game of delays and the occasional cost overrun to get a project started, but even so Talga has plenty of things going for it/us.
This isnt even being about a wet blanket, its just kind of hilarious. For 3 years we have been hearing "yeah talga is all fine and dandy, but what about the permits?" Now we have the permits. Not even a week later its, "well guys, I see you have the first permit. but what makes you think that talga will ever make any money, in the next 5 years?" Oh come on!
1. We are digging an open pit mine here. Its not quite as simple as digging a hole in your backyard with a shovel, but its not like we are building a 100-storey skyscraper here. There is no great engineering feat. Its like 2 meters down to the payload. The ore grade is 25%. The ancient egyptians could execute the plan for this mine. A drunken construction worker could accidentally start mining this deposit while bored one evening with a backhoe and 15 minutes.
2. If you are going to tell me the investment banks baked into the share price a surprise 20% increase in mine yield, I can only politely disagree.
3. I have seen 10-storey buildings go up in a year. Im pretty sure Talga can handle the equivalent of a soundproofed warehouse in 6 months, with adequate time to plan.
4. 2 bags in 5 years? We have a 5-fold increase in mining output coming down the pipe in the next 5 years, same thing but 4 pits instead of 1. The permit wording is far more positive than anything I was hoping to read. Again, if you think that this share price is fair value for 100 ktpa anode at $10,000/t in 4 years backed with governmental debt, I... the math on that makes no sense.
5. The refinery being permitted in lulea is to handle 100 ktpa anode. Its not like, oh crap, we are going to need a whole new set of buildings for all this ore. To get the ore to the refinery, you need to take a train ride downhill. Can practically run the brakes the whole way to the station. Talga will need like what, 15km of tracks laid? right next to paved roads the entire way? Yeah ok.
6. It is going to take a lot of money. Yeah. Thankfully the EIB alone has quoted up to 300m. There are at least 3 other named banks interested in investing, the country of sweden is interested, the european union is planning 50 billion dollars in funding, and the US inflation reduction act is planning 100 billion. We are not facing disinterest, financial headwinds, and uncertainty here.
7. We have customers who do big volume who have confirmed talga anode has passed qualifications, and we have strong evidence that Tesla is interested. From the graphite car, to the anode presses breaking down in tesla when incorporating silicon while MT smiles knowingly talking about minor unexpected engineering hurdles to incorporating silicon, to tesla flat out stating they are looking to supply local whenever possible, to MT stating that there are strong reasons to stay in Germany for talnode SI...
8. We have governments who are incentivizing low-carbon life cycle materials. Thats us!
9. We have the permit. Watch this space indeed. 2 bags in 5 years? come on man. Do the math!
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