This still holds true from TLG Feb'21 presentation at Pareto conf where Slide 5 shows "~3.85 million tonnes coated graphiteanode required by 2030" for total demand of 3,208.5 GWh (1,200 tonnes graphite per GWh). TLG source is also Benchmark Minerals Intelligence
Using the latest demand numbers (from the Freyr slide earlier posted) 2020 was 241 GWh 2023 estimated at 829 GWh ... so ~830,000 tonnes graphite needed. 2025 estimated at 1,410 GWh ... much lower than BM's 2,400 GWh and 2030 estimated at 5,292 GWh ... is much higher than BM's 3,208 GWh
That is of course global demand and assumes all batteries using graphite, which Talga estimates at 40%-50% (slide 5 of Dec'20 Cap Raising) ... so call it 360,000 tonnes of graphite anode required in 2023 ... but that's w/wide
I make it `350GWh of capacity being brought online by 2023 in Europe (just roughly adding up the numbers from slide 6 of the Pareto presentation. If 50% of GWh is graphite anode then that's 175GWh which equates to 210,000 tonnes GW all needed in 2023
Of which local supply in Europe is currently 0 tonnes effectively (if I'm not mistaken) ... as in all imported.
@pabs might be a little early with 2023 ... probably not far off with 2025 but it the estimates in Freyr presentation are accurate then in 2030 with 5,292 GWh of battery plant capacity and if half of them need graphite and it's still 1,200 tonnes graphite needed per GWh then that's a massive 3,175,200 tonnes of graphite (w/w).
Gunna need a bigger mine ... and a Jeep with a lot of towing capacity.
TLG Price at posting:
$1.26 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)