You are preaching to the converted! I completely agree with the narrative you have put forward - I have posted links to Tony Seba myself in another forum. The EV revolution is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for investors, and Europe will offer some of the best investment returns thanks to government policy, consumer sentiment, decoupling from China and lack of local supply. About 90% of my portfolio is battery metals with a heavy focus on Europe. I hold TLG, VUL, EMN, INF and EMH (is that enough haha).
However, let's stay grounded. Listing on the NASDAQ does not guarantee a 30xRevenue valuation... it's just that several NASDAQ-listed companies, like the FANGs, have been able to completely dominate their markets AND have enormous margins - precisely because they barely manufacture anything. Hire a few software engineers and take over the world! It's not like that for miners or manufactures, who are constrained by physical product and supply chain bandwidth.
[Take an example: Slack was just sold to Salesforce for $28B (70x revenue). But they don't have to make anything except software].
I have not run any numbers on Talga. I think it's premature, since we don't have any information about their future business model (capacity/scale, partnerships, customers, pricing, etc.). All we know is that they planned for 19,000 tonnes (that's from memory - I don't think they said 100k tonnes) in the PFS and they have received expressions of demand for more than that (3x more). I don't see how anyone can forecast 3.2m tonnes in 2025 without a second bottle of wine.
What we *do* know is they have a big market to go after (EVs in Europe); a fantastic graphite resource with good location and low energy costs; green credentials; a seemingly smart team of engineers; few local competitors; and a lot of evaluations and trials going on with some serious potential customers. Management has done well so far, but remember they are explorers and scientists, not lean manufacturers, so there is a hill to climb there, but partnerships will help. All of that *smells* like a multi-billion market cap if it all comes off, and that's enough to keep me invested.
Not advice! Figaro
TLG Price at posting:
$1.85 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)