When you are talking EVs as applications for batteries, you are missing half the picture, maybe more. The ENTIRE electric industry is going green. Not just the cars. All of it. In the next 10 years or so. Already today, it is cheaper to build and operate a new solar or wind power plant including battery storage than continue to operate an existing coal or gas power plant. Today. Think about that. There is a massive amount of dead cap ex in these power plants, pipelines, refineries, mines, wells, etc. Furthermore, because Wind and Solar are cheaper than other power generators, the price per kWh will fall in the coming years, making the existing fossil fuel power plants even less profitable. The only thing that holds this back is manufacturing constraints on batteries, less so on solar panels and wind farms. Hear me out:
The stationary storage must be high cycle life and is not constraint by weight and doesnt need fast charging. So storage will likely be cheap LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries, which in turn are accompanied with cheap anode, i.e. graphite. That market is bigger than EVs. MBots pondering about SSBs.. even if they take over the EV space by 2025 (which it will not), it doent matter because the stationary storage market is enormous as well. And stationary will not use SSBs unless they are cheaper than traditional LFP cells. Which I dont see would be the case.
Just yesterday, Tesla announced that they will only pair their solar home installations with a power wall and not sell it separately. Why? 2 reasons: They safe the extra inverter, making it even more economical for the home owner to install both (most people already did that regardless).
So instead of going: Solar -> inverter -> house, grid <-> inverter <-> powerwall
They are doing: Solar -> powerwall <-> house, grid
which makes their product more attractive for customers. Additionally, all solar installations they make in the future are going to be capable to be connected and form a virtual power plant. Tesla is going to kill peaker plants with that. There is even a trail of that in Australia, I am sure you heard about that. Tesla is going to kill many regular power plants because residential will become net power positive instead of negative. And it doesnt need large companies to up front billions to get these things build. Its residential that do that. But all that relies on the availability of batteries. Within the next couple of years, Tesla is gonna disrupt the entire power generation industry and will spawn competitors going the same route. Almost no one sees it coming. Thats why I said earlier the 2TWh demand for batteries by 2030 is waaaayy too low.
Whether or not Tesla is getting its anode from Talga is irrelevant to us. Other companies want to produce batteries as well. Teslas plans on the power industry will cause a massive increase in demand on battery materials. We know already that the demand will be massive and Talga basically will get its product ripped out of their factories faster than free beer. Anyway, enough ranting. Talga cant ramp up its production fast enough. I hope they realize that. They need to produce Anode 10x their plans and more. They have the potential to corner 50% of Europas anode market. I hope they will, and no amount of dipping in the share price will make me sell my shares. The market is not a risk to Talga. Execution is, they need to kick the barrel hard and fast.
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