Agreed it was somewhat superficial, but he's a materials analyst...

Agreed it was somewhat superficial, but he's a materials analyst and is looking at it from a supply/demand perspective. What's driving the EV demand is a revolutionary shift in transportation and global policy.

This is leading to a "battery arms race" with new companies and disruptive competitors such as Tesla who don't have the overhang of ICE vehicles. Legacy auto companies who cannot adapt quickly enough, transition, and lock in supply then risk becoming another Kodak. There is far less differentiation between the auto companies as the battery is the key and will be largely similar across OEMs.

With the "climate crisis" countries are introducing new policy and regulation. The EU is enacting strict regulations around emissions, and is currently proposing legislation to completely ban ICE vehicles by 2035.

The point of the analysts is that the sheer demand for battery materials will still lead to a long term structural deficit and increasing prices given the time it takes new projects to come online. If your motivation is oversupply and upstream price control, the question is how long will it take you to achieve that?

Thomas Schmall CTO of VW has recognised the need to move downstream due to price concerns: "When sourcing batteries, however, we now have to go further down the supply chain, i.e. towards the sub-suppliers of the major suppliers. With batteries, the raw material costs are the crucial factor, and they account for about 80 percent of the costs. So we also have to take care of the raw materials."

I have a feeling I will be fine with my investment time frame for Talga.