Hi @pabs,Please take this reply as constructive and not...

Hi @pabs,

Please take this reply as constructive and not destructive as I debated whether I would reply to this post but I really feel that what you've posted is well (unintentional) "misinformation". Unless you've got some direct quote from CW that DCF underpins ARK Investments valuations then I highly doubt your statement ... I've looked through a few ARK valuations (in some detail) and I would not agree with your statement.

"Cathie Wood at ArK values a company as the risk adjusted NPV of future cashflows. On that basis TLG could easily be valued at usd10Bn.

Often there is a discount against Scoping or PFS NPV for execution risk. Although they have used 8% cost of capital which is excessive."


That said, I do believe that a stock's "intrinsic value" is indeed the present value of the future cash flows from operating its assets. While a DCF is useful, what really needs to be understood is where the "pinch points" are.

Here is a basic DCF for TLGRF ... current stock price = US$ closing on OTC
8% as a discount rate is LOW (resulting in a higher valuation) and should not be confused with an interest rate
Terminal Exit rate multiple is very subjective ... changing the low/high to 10/20 puts Fair Value to $12.75
Revenue, EBITDA & Capex come from PFSs with just a little smoothing.
No debt assumed. No further equity raising assuming. Funding assumed via JV asset sale (and "free carry" for TLG)

The thing this reinforces for me is that TLG has a bright future because we KNOW it is at the EPICENTER of a SECULAR SHIFT and the key to us COMMON EQUITY HOLDERs is how much of the asset we retain. There's a lot more to consider here than just Vittangi and Niska (and I don't mean Vanadium and copper resources).

Anyway I hope it is useful.