TELSTRA has shown why wireless broadband is not good enough in place of a National (cable) Broadband Network. But also why its Next G wireless network might be good enough to stop anyone else's NBN.
That's unless the government was prepared to put in far more than its promised $4.7 billion to build the NBN. It arguably would have to put in at least double that, and quite possibly pay for the entire NBN.
Telstra yesterday was trumpeting it had the world's fastest mobile broadband network, with peak network speeds up to a "blistering 21Mbps".
The trumpeting was actually a self-parody of 'advice' to potential customers to read the fine print in any contract with Telstra.
Blistering peak speed of 21Mbps -- going to an amazing 42Mbps later this year. But actual speeds of 550Kbps to 8Mbps. The 8 falls disappointingly enough far short of the 21/42; the 550 is a joke.
And even that's only if you are in the capital cities and "selected regional areas". Everywhere else it's 550Kbps to just 3Mbps.
And Telstra also "offers" the "choice" of a cheaper 3.6Mbps speed. Which is actually 550Kbps to 1.5Mbps.
Telstra keeps boasting how much faster these speeds are compared with dial-up internet. That's like saying how much better you car is compared with a Model-T Ford.
It's just the technology. Wireless mobile simply can't deliver sustained, real -- as in, 21st century -- broadband speeds.
You can only get pervasive, sustained 21Mbps, far less the already slightly obsolete 100Mbps, with fixed fibre-to-the-node cable.
So we have to get an FTTN? We will get an FTTN?
Actually, not necessarily. Telstra can cut a future FTTN off at the knees with aggressive marketing of its wireless mobile broadband and aggressive re-tooling of its existing (Foxtel) cable which goes past the key homes in Melbourne and Sydney.
The Optus-led bidder for the NBN will only proceed if the government bans an alternative network. And puts in the $4.7 billion, going on $10 billion.
While it might be able to ban a new competing NBN, it would find it impossible to stop Telstra 'building' a hybrid mobile-cable network.
In short, if Telstra plays hardball the NBN is dead. Unless the government lets Telstra build it, essentially on its terms. Or the government itself builds the mother of all white elephants.