When I look at the 2-3 year TLS chart, I see patterns that...

When I look at the 2-3 year TLS chart, I see patterns that suggest the decline that started in February 2015 has more to play out before TLS finally bottoms.

I feel there is potential for another total fall of 26% from the July top of $5.86. It has happened once before from $6.73 and can easily happen again. I feel TLS could get down to $4.35.

But I wouldn't be too concerned as TLS is in a good business and a 1 year wait will produce 31c worth of dividend.

You might argue that if TLS gets to $4.35, that that would make the current dividend yield go to 8%. Yes, it can. And I have seen TLS on a grossed up yield of 11% and still nobody wanted to touch it. So, I wouldn’t argue that the dividend will keep it supported. When huge panic and severe negative sentiment sets in, people go blind. Dividend level hasn’t supported in the past and it won’t now.

The good news is: There is a huge gap left on the chart at the $5.40 level form the recent ex dividend time. I can guarantee with 100% certainty that even if TLS goes down to $4.35, TLS will go back up to trade near $5.40. And I am 70% certain that TLS will trade near $5.40 in the next 12 months and near 100% certain in the next 18 months. TLS has an excellent history of filling in its chart gaps. You can rely on it.

Causes of weakness: World markets. I feel a sharp fall on the US market is just around the corner. When you look at the DOW chart, there is huge negative divergence formed. The other reason is a possible adverse ACCC decision. By ACCC announcing a review, it has cast uncertainty over TLS for months. And stocks don’t like uncertainty. The ACCC has been a pest on TLS for a decade now and continues to harass it even a decade on.

Another note on ACCC, the markets work in strange ways. So, it could be that even if the ACCC decision is against TLS, this may cause the TLS share price to bounce purely because the uncertainty has been lifted.

Sit back and enjoy the ride. Because that is what it will be if there is weakness, a down, then a gradual back up with good dividends along the way. You can also use the opportunity to buy more.