The battle was determining Wave 4 and 5 after the very clear 1,...

The battle was determining Wave 4 and 5 after the very clear 1, 2 and 3 impulse waves of the past 18 months. It is now looking more and more like we were in Wave 4 and part C of 4 as shown in image 3. I agree with MKI4EVA that there was overlap of Wave 4 coming down into Wave 1 (dip to $3.31). But I feel that can happen in the real world (text books and under normal conditions, no). But this was not text books and was high pressure.

Most important is that the fall was halted and was very clear to see. And there was the required volume expansion 75, 48 and 44 million at that critical point accompanied by green candles in the area.

We also got the rate cut I thought we would. I was 100% sure that the RBA would cut today.

My feeling is that Wave 5 now starts and $3.31, $3.44, $3.50 was a buy zone (as consistent with  image 3). We now have the right conditions, namely expanded volume near the end of Wave 4, sub wave C and the rate cut which makes TLS dividend even more attractive. Some favourable conditions have converged.

You might say, "4.5% big deal, banks and others are yielding 5.0%". Well, the shine with TLS's yield of 4.5%  is that TLS has already been through its yield cut carnage (cycle). Penn already butchered it 2.5 years ago. Whereas resources BHP, RIO rely on China and the cut was not good for bank margins. TLS's stable industry, it's stable local operation will make its 4.5% yield more attractive, hence the stability of its gains today after 2.30pm.

On the topic of if TLS can afford 16c yield per year, according to the spreadsheet I prepared with EPS, PE and so on, yes, it can. It can even go up (Penn gives the special div a rise as he leaves). The market believes TLS's NBN related earnings low has bottomed this year with no more deterioration. This, together with 5G expansion, a potential rise in dividends to 18c and with the Penn's 2022 cost cuts, the market is expecting slow and gradual increases in full year net profit from around 2.154 billion to say $2.5 and then $2.8, then back to $3 billion per year.

Note the year 2022 as selected by Penn. That is probably when he expires. And would have chosen that year confidently as a fail safe earnings appreciation.

If to $2.5 billion (next August 2021) and $2.8 billion per year FY2022, then EPS=2,500,000,000/11,893,000,000 (shares on issue)= 21c. Can easily do 16c per share and maybe 18c. The moment she gets $2.4 billion, we get EPS=20c. Net profit will need to go down to $1.9 billion for EPS to equal Dividend=16c. But we have guidance and it is saying August will be >$2 billion. So, as long as TLS is just doing nothing and doing what it is now, means EPS of >16c.

So, a dividend of 4.5% when cash rate is 0.5% and banks giving say the new 1.5% is safe.

Coming back to charts, the way we know this is now Wave 5 is that it will get closer to $4.00 this time than the last $3.88-$3.90 hesitation kind of levels. And in a more easy clear way. If it can't get above $3.65, then be cautious and forget it. But remember, we now have the benefit of a proven and tested $3.40 support and expanding volume. We had very weak volumes past 5 months.

Another point is that, if TLS was truly weak, it would have already gone down as far as $2.98 during this last week global turmoil. It didn't. That is the other hint that this is Wave 5 starting.

As image 3 says, watch for areas target 1 and target 2. On our chart, those levels are, $3.80 and $3.90-$3.94 areas.

I can't agree with MKI4EVA on long term $2.60 and $2.00 just yet. But I do understand and know where he is coming from. But I feel the 2 x $2.60 low is inside a decade is a significant low event that may exclude his theory. And I don't think TLS net income will fall under $1.8 billion per year.

If none of this works out, don't be rude and nasty at me. FS's. I'm just sharing my thoughts and chart views.