TLS 0.28% $3.62 telstra group limited

Op, although it looks like it is heading to $3.00, but nothing...

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    Op, although it looks like it is heading to $3.00, but nothing sure as you say. I still don't trust this with Penn at the wheel.

    I still feel Penn has to go. He is a man who is learning on the job, slowly and at the expense of shareholders.

    When they advertised for the position of CEO, Thodey must have written in the advertisement, "No experience necessary, training on the job will be provided, candidate can try some things and learn on the job".

    "Candidate can do a buy back at $5.00 and see how it goes for a year, if it doesn't work and the share price plunges 50%, then can try a few other things. If share price reaches -55%, then as a last resort, if things get really bad, CEO can go all in and cut 8000 jobs, slash dividend and break the company up and sell parts off".

    I sometimes have a feeling that this could be a sell here at $2.85 as by the end of the month, there will be a long red candle sitting beside last months candle and the price is back at low $2.60's.

    As for global markets bringing TLS down, no. I don't think TLS will go down due to global markets. If TLS can survive next Thursday and Penn's mouth, it will act defensively and hold better than other stocks in a global markets shake up. TLS's behavior will predominantly be affected by Penn's decisions alone.

    If you look back at the past year and more, TLS has acted on its own due to Penn's decisions alone. The All Ords and global markets at all time highs. So, TLS has been doing its own thing.

    In short, although I hold TLS and have a buy on it, I will be watching carefully at any signs of this plunging back down again by months end. Purely because it is a fact now that every time Penn talks, the stock falls. The guy has never been able to make the share price rise. Quite the opposite.

    A skillful CEO who knows what he is doing would have seen this all coming 2 years ago and would not have done a buy back at $5.00. He would have cut the 8000 jobs and the dividend way back in 2016. Not increase the dividend from 30c to 31c. And not left it until 3 years into the job to cut the 8000 jobs and the phone plans from 1800 to 20. An experience CEO and the right CEO for the job would have done all this much earlier and let the share price reset way back then and then do the share buy back. He would have thought all this through and seen it coming. So, you can tell this man is experimental and is learning on the job as he goes. Hence causing the slow and endless fall in share price across 3.5 years. No other top 10 company has had such a long bear market with no meaningful gains in between.

    People have forgotten this now after the little recovery of late and only bring it up when the price falls, but lets not forget, Penn still has to go.

    I will be very surprised if the market likes what Penn says this Thursday and the shares rise. He will go on about bla bla bla and not really give what the market really wants to hear and that is once and for all certainty on the dividend. Either reinstate that the 22c will be here for the next 2 years at least, or cut the fuc.ng thing again once and for all Penn to 18c and leave it there for 3 years. But when they ask him about this, he will answer it in an unsure and uncertain way ("we will decide that later"). Not thinking and knowing that markets hate uncertainty.

    If somehow the market likes Penn on Thursday, then great. I am all for TLS going up and have been waiting as I am a holder and buyer. I'm not down ramping here. Just stating what we have seen happen with this bloke as CEO.

    I have included a chart here. It is an hourly chart. It shows negative divergence on the hourly RSI. Kind of bothers me a little as it is indicating a fall on the horizon. But given that it is only on the hourly, it may just be indicating a small fall coming soon back down to its recent support level of $2.80 on Monday or Tuesday. This negative divergence is not really seen on the daily chart though.

    Good luck.

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