hi TMG folks
I thought to post my research on a new thread so I can find it easily in the future
disclosure: I hold TMGO options at 0.5 cent average price so i am keen on TMG
as was recently announced on 10 August 2020:
• A total of 26 rotary holes drilled to a maximum depth of 10m across the playa lake surface returned high grade assay results of up to 14,500mg/L SOP (14.5kg/m3), providing further evidence of the potential for a large-scale high-grade SOP project at Lake Throssell. • Average grade of 11,300mg/L SOP from 77 brine samples collected, with 90% of all holes drilled to date returning grades exceeding 10,000mg/L SOP. These results place Lake Throssell amongst the highest-grade SOP Projects in Australia. • The recently completed ground gravity survey is being analysed to finalise planning for the air-core drilling program to test the basal aquifer in the interpreted palaeochannel, which has the potential to host a large volume of potassium-rich brine. • These results, together with the planned air-core drilling program, will form the basis of an Inferred Mineral Resource estimate scheduled for next Quarteryesterday, our CEO was fire in the new video below:
my personal research is below. regard it at your own risk & DYOR
1. 57,987,500
shares on issue (including 17,787,500 escrowed until October 2021)
2. 4,235,626
performance shares for a scoping study & a PFS
3. 34,137,500 TMGO
options exp 31/10/21 mostly exercisable at 20 cents with 2m at 25 cents bringing in $6.9m if exercised
4. $1.8 million in
cash at 30/6/20
5. current
market capitalization at 12.5 cent share price is $7.3M undiluted
6. Air-core drilling programs starting next, subject to final approvals; with JORC anticipated in the next quarter
7. if next quarter's anticipated JORC finds Lake Throssell to be a commercial deposit, my 1st target is an EV (enterprise value) of $15M, which equates to
23 cent share price (i.e., 96M shares & options fully diluted less $6.9M in cash from options)
8. if Lake Throssell is found to be a very good commercial deposit, my 2nd target is an EV of $30M, which equates to
39 cents share price (i.e., 96M shares & options fully diluted less $6.9M in cash from options).
9. warning: yes, i am being enthusiastic but i think 39 cents is possible if results are excellent; particularly the "specific yield". the CEO has highlighted in video above & below how the brine has high flow rates in the type of rocks:
10. Lake Throssell is on the
Great Central Road approximately 200 km from a sealed road at Laverton. On 25/05/2020, the WA govt announced work is starting soon to seal the 41km section of Great Central Road; that ultimately this will create Australia's third Transcontinental Highway, providing a sealed route starting in Laverton, Western Australia, through Alice Springs in the Northern Territory and connecting all the way to Winton in Queensland.
https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov....-Road-Outback-Way-sealing-works-underway.aspx11. The terminus (at Gruyere Gold Mine) of the Yamarna
Gas Pipeline lie 20 to 60 km to the southwest:
https://www.apa.com.au/our-services/gas-transmission/west-coast-grid/eastern-goldfields-pipeline/12. the main/central E38/3065 Lake Throssell tenement a single exploration licence covering an area of
323 km2 (per prospectus). Surrounding tenements make the whole Lake Throssell area
694km2 (per 10/8/20 announcement).
13. our CEO says "
it is enormous" and seems to reckon the geology will have very good "
specific yield".
14. Note: "specific yield" is a factor in determining the size of a resources, namely, volume of earth x specific yield x grade. for example,
hypothetically, if the entire E38/3065 has the same amount of potash (SOP); it was drilled to & had potash to 25 metres deep; had grade of 11.0 kg/m3 (or 11,000 mg/l) and specific yield of 12%, the size of the resource would be 323M m2 area x 25m deep x 12% x 11,000 mg/l =
10.7M tonnes of "drainable" SOP . I personally i hoping for at least 8 million tonnes of SOP, which would support a large 400,ooo tpa operation for 20 years
15. by comparison, the
higher grade companies RWD (Lake Disappointment) & So4 (Lake Way) have deposit or mining reserve with 13% specific yield and grades of 13,000 to 14,000 mg/l. KLL appears to have 8.8% specific yield in its measured & indicated resource. Lake Way has a ore reserve of 4.0M tonnes and KLL 5.1M tonnes
16. the
lower grade deposits appear to be AMN (6% specific yield & 6,277 mg/t in 20Mt ore reserve/7,493 mg/t in deposit to 25m); APC (8.8% specific yield; 7,415 mg/t grade; 3.6Mt ore reserve); So4 Lake Wells (8,740 mg/t; no yield published)
17. therefore, it
Lake Throssell can return 11,000 mg/l and a strong specific yield, given its proximity to infrastructure, it appears it will be very commercial and could possibly reach the $30M market cap target in the short term JORC if the results are excellent
18. best wishes. it all depends on the drilling. DYOR
(20min delay)