TMK CSG Exploration Model and 2p Certification Strategy Rev157
_Field_Development_Strategy_Plan_on_a_Page.pdfTMK_MODEL_1_Pages_1_4.pdfTMK_MODEL_1_Pages_5_9.pdfTMK_MODEL_1_Pages_10_14.pdfTMK_MODEL_1_Pages_15_16.pdf
Fellow TMK Shareholders
Attached Plan on a Page & Model Printouts in .pdf format.
·To simplify things the Model values TMK shares at $0.50 /GJ of Certified 2P Reserves divided by the diluted Numberof shares after associated capital raising.
·The attached PDF of the Strategic Plan on a Page is primarily intended to give TMK shareholders an overall appreciation of the additional capital requirements to gain 2P certification of the central east West band oof Gurvantes CSG bearing areas and the potential valuation of the company at $0.50/GJ of their certified 2P reserves.
·The 722 PJ of 2C reserves from a 60∕km² footprint from only the150-750 deep coals (Average Lucky Fox Total Depth = 459M ) certified by NSAI is a strong indication that the properties of the coals are in order and that the permeability which is one of the most important parameters is within an acceptable range.
oIt is important to realise that a large number of cores (From the core wells) have been placed in sealed cylinders immediately after bringing them to the surface and as the gas contained in the coal is released the volume of desorbed gas was plotted under laboratory conditions confirming that the gas is there and simply requires the downhole pressure to be less than the critical desorption pressure for the gas to be desorbed.
oThe TMK March 2024 operations review stated that “Final Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) analysis provides validation that most of the water is being produced from the coal seams, not from adjacent aquifers ornon-coal bearing zones” and this is important since it indicates that underground aquifers are not likely to be interfering with the reduction of downhole pressure.
oThe amount of water being pumped from the coals falls somewhere in the middle of the range of ML/PJ for similar coal bearing deposits.
oIn simple terms, because the piloted coals are contained in a syncline that is the result of geological uplifting after the CSG was originally produced by biogenic production of the coal seam gasmicrobial activity in the coal seams, the coals are undersaturated as a result of the uplifting and it is my best guess that saturation is say 70% and this means that the critical desorption pressure is correspondingly lowered but this leaves plenty of recoverable gas in the coals.
oThe Lucky Fox Net coal thicknesses average about 60M and IMO this is one of the reasons that it is taking longer to reach critical desorption pressure.
·It has been my experience that most, small CAP CSG exploration companies are generally short of working capital to do the maiden 2P certification pilots, and this is why TMK started off with an initial 3 pilot wells and IMO there is little doubt that sufficient extrawells surrounding the Luck Fox Pilot would have reach critical desorptionpressure sooner.
·Once critical desorption pressure is reached in the lowest seams the gas flow should be significant simply because of the 60M of net coals feeding each well.
·
Screen Shot of the Well Benchmarking and Calibration system used in theModel.
vThemain risk to successful piloting and 2P certification IMO is shareholdersentiment to underpin any relatively small CR/s needed to get the Lucky Foxpilot over the Critical Desorption try line by drilling some extra wells.
The current CR will be used to drill 1 extra well.
Put simply in round numbers as I see it:
The ROI on the seedcapital of say $35M needed for the associated 2P certification of more than1,000 PJ from 1,100 ∕km² resulting in a ROI to Shareholders in the orderof1,000% to 2,000 % on today’s shareprice of $0.003 is so high that it borderlines on being counter intuitive andfor this reason great care is needed to communicate these parameters to shareholdersand potential shareholders at every opportunity.
The next thing that shareholders need to understand is aplausible execution strategy:
To this end have put a lot of work into producing thepreliminary high level Strategic Plan on a Page below which contains anactivity flow chart to act as a framework to assist the TMK Board, Managementand Shareholders to combine resources to optimise shareholder returns.
My own style of project management is to develop a basic strategic plan that involves the stakeholders at the earliest possible opportunity and involve them closely with its refinement and development.
I then drive the project execution aggressively and IMO this is particularly important in today’s unstable geopolitical environment where time is Risk.
Screen Shot from theexecutive Summary from Model.
The table below taken from the attached .pdf Strategic Plan on a Page shows a return on the current share price of $0.003 of 2,092% if we can ringfence a mere 5∕km² (That’s only 5 squares of 1 ∕km²) around the Lucky fox Pilot yieldingabout 70PJ of 2P reserves and sell it for $0.50/GJ (Which may be conservative) in order to raise say $35M to pilot 114 km²to execute a piloting scope resulting in 2P Reserves of 1,175 PJ worth $547.5M.
70 PJ of 2P certification which by the way would be enough to support a 30MW combined cycle power generation operating for 30 Years so the entity generating the power would IMO be far better to secure long term tenure of its gas at $0.50/GJ.
The above metrics should assist shareholders tounderstand the extraordinary value of the monetised gas in the relatively thicknet coals in the Gurvantes Tenement.
Screen Shot of the ScenarioSummary Table from the Plan on a Page
vIfwe were unable to sell portion of the 2P reserves, we could proceed withadequate shareholder support to raise shareholder capital
and proceed regardless, and this is why I amexposing a preliminary Strategic Development Plan for collaborative developmentat this juncture.
The worst thing we could do IMO would be to farmout to gain working capital because the farmout partner would get a really gooddeal and probably add significantly to the administrative load om TMK
I urge you to look carefully at the flow chart in the.pdf attachment:
FYI, I have cut & pasted the relevant screen shotbelow.
üThe Red squaresare activities that TMK should consider prioritising wherever possible in parallelto onsite works.
üI have included a small-scale map with arrows from the relevant activities to give shareholders a geographic appreciation of the location and nature of the say 4 pilots.
üOne of the Red Activitiesreads “Liaise with Certifier on the scope ofadditional field development to convert the existing 60 Sq.KM2C to 2P over the extended footprinttotalling 111.4 ∕km.” and IMO this is important because their output acts as a scope of works to finalise the number and possible design of the pilots affects the CR budgets.
üThe following RedActivities,” Liaise with Certifier on the scope of additional field development”, and “Identify Areas for 2P Piloting and Develop Master 2P FDP Strategy”, IMO are necessary to fine tune the scope of works for the piloting necessary to gaon 2P certification
Screen Shotshowing the Activities Flow Chart in the Attached .pdf File
The Way Forward:
·Firstly, I would really value shareholder feedback and ideas which would improve the Parent. Business Plan on a page
·Ideally, the spreadsheet would be displayed as a framework for conducting at a series of live presentation workshop, but this requires a lot of coordination.
·IMOthis HC thread should be dedicated to reviewing both the Model and associatedPlan on a Page and I will do my best to communicate the Hot Copper output fromshareholders to TMK Management.
Best Regards
The OilGasPlanning logo is acombination of the Yin and Yang symbol overlayed on a pipeline symbol togetherwith a pressure vessel and electrical sign wave together representing abalanced approach to monetizing CSG down the pipe, down the wire and by cryogenicor pressurized transportation.
(20min delay)