tmr mustv read my post, page-10

Apologies again for such an inaccurate and unresearched post. The "additional" part messed up my thinking and understanding completely, and even then what I was saying would not have made sense. If I bothered to read and understand the chart at all, I would have realised what I was saying was inaccurate. I will take more time before I post such things in the future.
Annnyway...

Here is what I have calculated regarding actual earnings based on forecasts.

Under the same cost structure of 2.39 and copper price of 3.50, profit at 1.10.

Profit at 1957tpd = 12.92M

Profit at 3000tpd at same grade and recovery rates = 19.81M

Revenue at 3000tpd at same grade and recovery rates = 62.48M.

Revenue at 3000tpd at improved grades and recovery rates = 88.01M.

Increase in revenue at 3000tpd on improvement of grades and recovery alone = 25.53M

Profit + increased revenue = 19.81 + 25.53 = 45.34M

Therefore earnings at targeted rates = 45.34M - costs of improving grades - costs of refining additional ore (from improvement of grade and recovery, NOT increase of production) + any additional savings through other factors.

This will obviously increase if the current price of copper is used instead of 3.50, and will decrease if the price of copper falls below 3.50.

This is also only their target and even if achieved, may not happen until the end of 2008.

From a purely objective standpoint I will say, make of this what you will. This was calculated as a rough guide as to the current situation, reducing some of the variables for ease of reading. It also obviously hinges on whether their targets are achievable.

Other associated factors in the current climate such as if the peso continues to appreciate relative to the US$, or the increasing cost of oil will be refelective in this scenario, and obviously the inverse is true, but this is based on current conditions.

From my personal perspective, I would assume the costs of improving grades and refining of additional ore would be greatly offset by the savings through other factors aside from improved grade and recovery rate, and hence their figure of 50M is achievable. The factors of which are explained.

The price of copper has been raised 30c from their inital statement of 50M ebit, meaning various implications, none of which I can be certain about without more information and understanding of what they expect.

I was personally hoping the timeframe would mean we would start seeing such results at the beginning of 2/2 08, but maybe this is still the case and I am misreading or reading too much into this.

I am unsure as to why 1.4 grade is being used instead of 1.5 grade, hopefully they are being conservative, or at least the grade would then improve to 1.5% after these targets are reached at a later date, and is not, in fact, revised.

Thanks.