HI TMT Team,
I have been back through the TMT preso's and set the base case for all the info we know to date and reset the Net Present Value of TMT / Share on the register.
Current China V205 Spot $7.80 @ 27.9 million pounds per annum
Current C3 All in Cash Costs Opex $5.50 US per pound (Estimate)
Below is the estimate I have come up with as a base case. Integration study and resource upgrade due I will show a comparison and the value Ian has added once the numbers are all confirmed over the coming months.Mine life to be extended to 25 years I am currently only showing 9 years.
I think why the share price has been lagging so much is that TMT has not actually demonstrated the key numbers for Yarrabubba as of yet we have only confirmed that we can produce a V205 product and a titanium product. What is missing is production profiles (Announcement due) and a new mine life. (Announcement due)
I will admit I have overlooked this part of the puzzle as well.
Below is the current situation with only GVP at a 16 year mine life. Once the integration study is complete the chart will be updated to show the added value.
I reckon the market has priced TMT at 50% of the GVP numbers only as demonstrated below.
In summary the market is pricing TMT as no chance to get to mine hence the lag in the share price to date.
The key announcements as I have mentioned above are key to upgrading the economics of the MTMP.
All prices and volumes are live and as confirmed data. Basically that is the picture based on the 2019 DFS of GVP @ 16 year mine life.
Cheers,
Troydt.
