Always enjoy you thought process Troydt. RCF has certainly...

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26/03/23

14:13

Post #: 66964011
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Originally posted by Troydt: ↑

I have formulated a new view just now….

RCF can’t takeover TMT as the top 20 is too tight and would be hard to perform a takeover…..They currently own 18% of TMT and would be happy with their investment.

Now here is the AVL part.

My view is that RCF see AVL as an easy target for a takeover. Why would that be?

- No major insto investors before RCF.
- High Cash Burn Annually with excess management

RCF will take a major position in AVL with no resistance and punt the management team.

- Vince Algar, Cliff Lawerson and Daniel Harris need to get punted. Between Todd Richardson and the new CEO AVL will do well.

They will then control to a point most of the vanadium supply out of Australia.

My opinion is AVL will get funded on the basis of the US having to pay the cost per unit of vanadium for AVL just to secure some supply. It won’t be a spot market profit based company. The US will just pay the costs of AVL processing for Import.

TMT vanadium supply will go to mostly Allied US countries Such as India / Japan and Korea.

RCF then have the dominate investment position of TMT getting funded and gets a valuation as we want they can then sell their stake in TMT to say the TATA group at the right time and then free carry their investment into AVL.

If I was RCF that’s what I would do.

The top 20 outside of RCF have bought more shares in the last 6 months and held so Ian has the support.

I think this event by RCF will bring interest into vanadium and create panic for parties to secure supply.

could be fireworks in vanadium companies soon

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Always enjoy you thought process Troydt. RCF has certainly created a lot of interest and has pulled both companies out of a bit of a slump.
I try not to overthink these things, but I have always believed One Ore Body One Company as being the preference. That may be a dream too far away. I like RCF taking a strong hold in AVL The top 20 in AVL only control 25% If RCF increases its holding there to 10% plus (or in conjunction with another large holder) they would effectively be able to block a T/O of either company. ...
Or initiate one. Or merge
Also at this price, they have bought well.
I think the biggest disadvantage to AVL is the more than 4 billion shares and options. I would think a consolidation would be the way to go. (Worked well for Lynas)
Like you @Trodt I am constantly formulating different views the number of options is huge. I dont think anyone here is going to get it right.

TMT Price at posting: 31.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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