Thought I’d share some of my Sunday thoughts regarding tailwinds...

Thought I’d share some of my Sunday thoughts regarding tailwinds and headwinds for TMT going forward.

Tailwinds

• Russia and South African supply looking very very uncertain
• Chinese dominated market, push from the west to establish supply chains outside of china
• VRB deployment growing exponentially from 1 percent of vanadium consumption in 2021 to 10 percent (this years forecast according to industry experts )
• Global push for De carbonization, vanadium has two ways it can be utilized ie increase in specific consumption in steel plus VRBs both are happening right now
• Indian steel demand set to boom at the same time they are increasing Vanadium content ( mou with TATA)
• TMT being closest to permitting and production puts us in pole position for finance
• Gov backed loans with low interest rates for critical minerals and vanadium is a critical mineral on all major allies lists (this avenue didn’t exist in 2019)
• Titanium also a critical mineral
• Governments in AUS backing vanadium and funding electrolyte plants to assist in creating demand and exposure
• Only 2 percent of total storage market needs to be VRB to create enormous demand for vanadium and will require every project to come online (source jack bedder ex roskill now project blue)

Headwinds

• inflation and capital cost escalations (this is common to all projects and not tmt specific)
• Labor shortages in WA may take longer to build the mine
• Energy costs (this is hard to predict come 2025/26 but also helps with the decarbonistation and renewable investment tail winds)
• Competing vanadium projects ( TMT most advanced and highest grade with superior management. Industry experts are calling a need for multiple projects required to come online by end of this decade)
• Poor performance of Bushveld may turn off financiers especially if it goes bust but imo if bushveld goes out the back door it will cause a significant price rise and increase the case for TMT.
• Chinese steel demand looking uncertain (lower iron ore price means less co production and they have multiple GWH projects in the pipeline so this should offset any steel demand loss and more)

Something else to consider is the elephant in the room, RCF building a position here and next door. What is their motive. My view is if there is some sort of corporate action being planned we are likely to see a significant premium from here Especially considering the tightness of the register and the difficulty in trying to get holders to agree. With roughly 48m shares they ain’t getting out without something major happening.

Anyways in conclusion imo tailwinds far exceed the headwinds. As far as TMTs resource goes it’s cost about 25-30 million getting to this stage and about 7 years Of time. A fully permitted tier one vanadium resource that’s drilled to the s*@t house, thoroughly tested flow sheet, FEED and detailed design work done is not something that can be found easily or happen overnight . The downside from 50m Enterprise Value Is limited. Worst case maybe a 30-40 percent temporary fall in an absolute Armageddon black swan event that would smash everything anyways vs the Upside if it goes mining of 400-500 percent conservatively.

I think I’d much rather be in than out and want more at these prices. Look forward to seeing where we are come Xmas.