TVN 1.47% 6.7¢ tivan limited

TNG Chart and discussion

  1. 2,386 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3077
    Get out of here you dabbling heretic hack!

    I believe in T.A. as much as most of you long-termers in here do I suspect, being a strong fundamentals guy, but (heh), on a monthly basis, the Technical indicators show it as a strong buy:

    https://au.investing.com/equities/tng-ltd-technical

    Chart for the 6 months / weekly below - doesn't look too bad.

    Some salient points:

    The bearish doji star usually means a bullish continuation, 7 times out of 10. GOOD.

    High volume shows a lot of punters believe that to be the case too. GOOD.

    Williams%R signalling hugely overbought (shoosh Williams, what do you know!).

    RSI momentum indicator not above 70 (meaning overbought), so we should be alright on that front too.

    6monthsTNGoct2017.png

    What I'm trying to highlight is, and I'm culpable of this as much as the next LT holder, that what PB is coming out with, matches very nicely with what the charts are telling me. He may treat us like mushrooms most of the time, their communication skills are abysmal, but the ship seems to be steering in the right direction.

    It wasn't exactly his fault the EIS was unprofessionally done. And in a positive turn of fate, that has actually helped us with SMS coming up with better ways to process the ore, and add another high value product to our stable.

    We've just been told that finance is looking positive, especially with PB in and out of Germany quite often recently. Mining plans are afoot, as is the refinery, supposedly (what's happening with the application for that btw?? did I miss something? same old?). Also the contractors, machinery suppliers, offtakes, and hints the infrastructure will be taken care of by the govt etc., it's all coming together.

    I think when all the pieces of this puzzle finally fit, it's going to go nuts. Why? We're at $120m MC, and my conservative estimate of the NPV now, with the new products, is $8bn.

    That's not factoring in that once they turn the key, start pumping out the products at a fraction of the cost anyone else can, which mine in the world of this type, is not going to want a refinery built? And we get royalties on every refinery which will be built. What's that worth, double our own mine, treble, more? I think that latter.

    "We're going to be a technology company" says Paul. You can see why if you didn't already.

    Guess who doesn't want this to happen? Which country pumps out 42,000 MT p.a. of Vanadium, more than double the next country in the list?

    Guess which country produces 100,000 MT p.a. of Titanium, more than double the next country in the list?

    I don't know under what circumstances they bought in, perhaps my conspiracy theory nut has this totally wrong, and they genuinely wanted a slice of the company, with good intentions, but since I've been in, all I've seen from them, is  deliberately selling the stock down.

    It's cost them peanuts to try and suppress the rise and rise of TNG. Spending what, $20m (no idea what the figure was at the time, can't have been much) to help protect an industry worth tens of billions of ¥ opps, typo, $...

    Of course they don't want TNG to be successful, and Tivan hitting the market. It will hit their profits for 6.

    I sincerely hope PB has a plan in place to get them off the register, sooner, rather than later.

    DO THE MATH, as our uneducated brethren across the pond might say. Once the first refinery is churning out product, it will be game on.

    The Germans have already performed their calculations and are happily going full-steam ahead.

    Glad to have taken a little look at the chart, had a bit of a ponder. Now I can see the wood from the trees again, and it gives me renewed confidence.

    Now don't let us down PB!

    If any of you guys know any good HC chartists, can you ask them to pop their head in and pitch in please.

    Happy to hear other people's views on the above. I think I'm in or around the ballpark. Contrarian views, especially enjoyable.

    Cheers.
    Last edited by mrplough: 30/10/17
 
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