For the impatient, I totally understand, and I’m with you - but I feel we only have “One Final Push“ to go until Pay Day.
Some investors have forgotten what they hold and are blinded by missed timelines. I've taken a minute to go back and remember what exactly the Mount Peake business plan looks like.
It takes a long time to take a greenfield mining operation through to Final Investment Decision, especially one that operates via TNG’s patented TIVAN Technology, backed by SMS.
Some Investors are blinded by PB’s salary, and think he’s only here for his salary, but the reality is he is now MORE incentivised with his 20 million units of Performance Rights to get the best price for Mount Peake and as he nears retirement. I’m sure he’d like it all wrapped up before this year’s AGM as well. Give him credit for what he has managed to assemble.
We can all see that the fog is starting to lift and burn off! With only a couple of key pieces of the jigsaw left to fall into place - with the EIS due to be completed in coming months, the FEED (major project de-risking) about to fall into place, the Darwin refinery land about to be agreed too, and KFW chomping at the bit to sort out the finance.
The next 3/6 months is an opportune time for a Goliath to start to make their move and take the project via a scheme of arrangement. Especially if we get Product and Project Guarantees before a scheme is launched.
Yes, I agree it’s been a long long time and it’s been a rough ride. I’ve been here 8 plus years and I know others who have been in for longer nor have Management given us the easiest of armchair rides, but we are now closer than ever to a substantial “Re-Rate” - either through FID & Production, or the ‘Rightful Project Owners’ revealing themselves and the few billions $$ they will part with to pay for a fully de-risked global first class project, delivered on a silver platter, with tier one providers and $10 billion in profit sitting in a $130 million vehicle on the ASX.
In a low growth, low interest rate environment, Mount Peake is worth more than it ever has been!
Whilst like everyone I am equally frustrated with project delays, but it seems we are into the final 100 sprint, we’ve turned a corner and are on the home straight of this long distance 5,000 metre race.
Things can fall into place pretty quickly from here.
When it’s over, you’ll forget about how long it took and how hard it was, watching the TNG executive team pull together KPMG, NAIF, KFW, SMS.
Pulling teeth might have been more favourable compared to this rough old ride, but you’ll have been paid for it!
If it takes a few thousand design decisions to build a house, how many design decisions for a 2 million tonne per annum project, with moving trains, ships, bulldozers and trucks and pipelines as well as a heavy metals refinery that will operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 37 years, at a minimum!
Sometimes some people forget the size and complexity of this Goliath, as-well as the vertical integration with key project partners management have been able to achieve.
It may be taken over via a scheme and that might upset some wanting 40 years worth of dividends to hand to the family for generations to come, but with global interests rates where they are and with an adjusted risk free rate more along the lines of circa 5% - that means Mount Peake's DFS model should be worth a few billion more $$. With the cost of Titanium set to double in the next 10 years, surely their are global Titanium end users who need to secure their supply, to protect their business models and margins!
Virtually everything is out of PB’s hands now. He’s sitting their expanding his Business Plan for VRB’s, not that I think we’ll see that come to bear fruit under the TNG company structure.
This is being principally driven by SMS and KFW at the helm. And to put that into context, they wouldn’t be here if this wasn’t in their wheelhouse, nor would the Morrison Govt put its name to the project, without a well mapped out plan forward to monetise Mount Peake, as a quality strategic metals project, full of money for taxes, employees, first land holders, shareholders and all other stakeholders.
Keep the faith we are almost at Pay Day!
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