TO - great post. It made me wonder what the revenue and earnings of a $1 billion market cap tech company ought to have - one that is working in the "cyber security" space. Probably the closest ASX comparison would be with NXL at MC=$2.8b, accepted that their business is mostly cyber forensics, not cyber security. For FY2021, NXL are forecasting revenues of $193m and profit of $20m. If NXL were scaled to have an MC=$1b, their scaled (down) FY2021 revenues would be $69m with $7m earnings.
But as we all know, TNT are forecasting a $150m run-rate by the end of FY2021, and will probably clock up around ~$100m revenue for FY2021. TNT's forecast for profit for FY2021 is not clear, but ought to be cash flow positive, based on advice to the market to date. So overall, it looks to me that TNT already has more than the revenue to be a $1b MC, based on this quick comparison with NXL. Some would point out that a $1b MC would mean TNT would be trading with a ridiculously high P/E. But the market clearly thinks this is OK in the case of NXL.
All IMHO, DYOR
TNT Price at posting:
43.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held