TNT 0.00% 13.0¢ tesserent limited

TNT Chart, page-24

  1. 5,342 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2078
    I'm certainly not a brilliant chart guy, this is just a textbook analysis of one of the most basic types of chart setups.

    Basically, you can see the lines I've drawn in black which show the upper and lower trendlines of the symmetrical triangle as posited by BoZz. That much is fairly self explanatory (I'm happy to discuss it further if it's not). The green line is a vertical line from the oldest point on the upper (shorter) side of the triangle down to the lower side (the old/left ends of the sides come from the oldest points of contact on the line). The target price is the point of convergence of the black lines plus the value of the green line (which is why I made the second green line in that position and in the same colour as the original green line to show they are equal and one comes from the other). In this case it comes to a value of very close to 10c (or I get a figure of around 5.8c if you subtract that value from the point of convergence). If my understanding is correct, the textbook stoploss to apply is the first price touch of the lower side of the triangle after the vertical green line, which in this case is 7.5c.

    The lower side of the triangle is longer and the previous trend is upwards, indicating this triangle is probably going to break up to the upside rather than downside.

    None of this post so far is my own analysis, just my explanation of textbook charting of symmetrical triangles. I'd agree with BoZz, this does seem to be a valid case.

    I think charting in some cases makes some sense, and in other cases, this being a great example, it's predominantly a self-fulfilling prophesy, but a reliably self-fulfilling prophesy. That is, everyone expects the textbook pattern to play out, so they play accordingly, so it does happen. With a clear textbook pattern saying it's going to go higher, people will want to buy, so the price will go higher. With a textbook short term target of 10c the price will quickly go to around 10c. From there it becomes unpredictable because no one has a textbook prediction. It could potentially crash back down as people take profit according to the textbook (which says to take profit ie sell at 10c) or the jump in price may catch attention and cause a further price jump, causing a snowball effect, or it may commence a new channel or sit stable or set up for a new pattern... hard to say, but given the sentiment being so positive and fundamentals being pretty good, and the expectation of good news in the 4c coming up about a week after the pattern plays out (a lot of positive influences combined), it's likely to have a good or at least neutral outlook. Then we'll get the 4c which will likely guide the way.

    All of the above is, of course, my understanding of textbook charting and my own guesses/analysis and of course is not advice or any sort of guarantee.

    As for where to learn about charts, keep in mind that charting is only one type of price prediction. I made the most money trading stocks before I ever looked at charts. At that time I just went on gut feel of the market, watching it constantly through the trading days, focussing on stocks I thought were overall looking fundamentally positive, and it worked really well. I deliberately avoided learning about technicals because I knew that once I did, my mind would be distracted by them and my gut feel wouldn't work any more, but inevitably over the years I eventually picked bits up, and I couldn't feel the market the way I used to. If you understand how and why each type of chart works, you can use them very successfully (it's not the method I primarily use, and when I take losses, often in hindsight I look at the chart and see it tried to tell me what I should have done).

    I just googled this for you for a quick description of triangle charts (I personally think ascending and descending triangles are actually more genuine predictors rather than just self-fulfilling prophesies, but they are also self-fulfilling prophesies on top of that).
    https://www.dailyfx.com/education/technical-analysis-chart-patterns/triangle-pattern.html

    There are many many many chart setup patterns. I don't get too deep into them and I think it just ends up as paralysis by analysis with little benefit, but when there's an obvious pattern it does usually play out. Double top is one which is so consistent and obvious that I learned it myself from seeing it repeatedly in multiple companies, even before I read up about it and learned that it was a textbook thing (which of course, had a different name from the one I'd called it, but worked in the same way). Head and shoulders is another one which is pretty reliable once it sets up.

    Google stock market charting and read the basics on some of the main investment sites (HC might actually have a set of chart descriptions come to think of it).
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add TNT (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.