I'm not sure whether this qualifies more as optimism or desperation, but it has nothing to do with reality.
I literally posted the charts so they're right above to refer to.
We literally have a double top and a tweezer top on the chart.
There is absolutely nothing resembling a solid base here. The current situation is similar to the previous horizontal channel we saw (marked with the blue lines on my chart). A very similar thing is repeating now, except this time it is far more bearish, as I've described at length, so more likely to fail. Within what is remotely likely, best case scenario is for 10c to hold, but without unexpected good news I'm pretty sure it won't.
Higher lows? No, not in any meaningful way.
Obviously if there was some sort of unexpected great news, the price would go up. That's true of any company. If there is unexpected bad news, the price will go down. In reality, what news could we reasonably expect at this point? We have ongoing dilution, we can be sure that revenue this quarter will be lower than last quarter, without a comparable drop in costs. What unexpected good news could come? The market would react badly to an acquisition at this point. Can you even come up with a hypothetical? I can't come up with a particularly plausible one.
I usually watch at least one trash company at all times to keep a balanced perspective on the markets and investor mindsets and company strategies etc. I don't think TNT is a trash company, but for the last year or so it has been obvious that the price will be going down, and we so consistently see everyone desperate to believe any bull case even if it makes absolutely no sense, and regardless of how obvious the reality is, if people don't like it they don't believe it, even when it's spoon fed to them. It's a bit sad to see so much about the TNT discussions resemble to discussions about the trash companies I watch.
If you want to be successful on the market, put your pride on the shelf and look at things objectively rather than just trying to find any way to convince yourself to believe what you want to be true. Everyone has hated me for explaining why the price would go down, they've abusively told me I was wrong, but look at the reality which unfolded.
The chart is currently extremely bearish, the fundamentals are almost certain to have a negative impact for the next few months, and the macro situation is unlikely to help and very likely to hurt. If you think things are looking good in the short term you're just lying to yourself, which in the moment may make you feel better but in all but the extremely short term is harmful. If your goal with your investments is to make money, be honest rather than trying to preserve your pride on top of a house of cards.
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