I was talking more about shorter term risks. Yes, you're right, these are legitimate longer term risks. Short term, yep, 20c is pretty easy to see; heck, 20c next week wouldn't be particularly surprising next week, and if the quarterly is any good, 20+c the following week is probably *likely*, but we have to see it first. A lot is riding on it give the stellar run we're having coming up to it.
Looking 18 months ahead... gee, hard to say. Too much uncertainty to call it. Best case scenario you're in the dollars rather than cents, worst case scenario you're looking at well below what we are now. I dare say it seems at least likely to be above rather than below the current price.
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