Time to put my head above the parapet for an estimate of the June quarter in advance of the report next week.
Tonnes hauled and milled, Grade and recovery are obviously variables that cannot be predicted with any certainty. However, with this quarter being the first full quarter with L8 at the 1,400tpd level and with the other shafts contributing further capacity of 1,000tpd it would appear reasonable that tonnes hauled and milled will be somewhere between the Dec-14 qtr level of 160kt and the current maximum of 180kt - so I am estimating c. 170kt for the June quarter.
Grade over the Mar Qtr was 5.84g/t so I am estimating c. 5.9g/t for the June Qtr.
Recovery was 94% for the March Qtr so I am assuming a similar plant performance over the June Qtr.
That would therefore translate to c. 30,316 oz of gold production compared to the 26,859 oz produced in the Dec-14 Qtr.
Average PoG over the Qtr was US$1,189/oz so revenue will have been c. US$36m.
Cash costs have averaged US$331/oz over 20 quarters and US$407/oz over the last 8 quarters - so I am opting for c. US$405/oz for the June Qtr. Which makes operational costs total c. US$12.277m.
Hence, gross margin of c. 66% with Operational Cash Generation of c. US$23.8m.
Investment Outflows would look to be as follows:
Exploration c. US$3.1m
Capital Works c. US$5m (incl the new service shaft)
Development c. US$9.3m
Corporate c. US$1.8m
Making a total outflow of US$19.2m
OPCF - Outflows = c. US$4.6m of free cash flow.
Cash at 31-March was US$15.5m so cash held at 30-June would be c. US$20.1m.
Debt at 31-Dec was US$8m so net cash can be estimated at c. US$12.07m. It remains to be seen if they have further paid down debt, but either way, the net cash figure should hold.
June qtr AIC (All-In Costs, incl non-recurring items) = c. US$1,038/oz.
For the full year (assuming the above figures are relatively correct) the totals would be as follows:
Production ~ 102,133 oz
Cash costs ~ US$39.8m
Revenue ~ US$124.2m
OPCF ~ US$84.3m
Outflows ~ US$69.9m
FCF ~ US$14.5m
Average cash costs ~ US$390/oz
Average AIC ~ US$1,075/oz
NPAT ~ US$49.7m
EPS ~ US$0.24
EPS ~ A$0.33 (at current Forex rate for US$/A$)
Purely my own estimates based on prior quarterly reports and personal assumptions regarding the June quarter.
CPDLC
MML Price at posting:
64.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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