Very perceptive post PhillW:PhillW posted:"A simple warning for...

Very perceptive post PhillW:

PhillW posted:
"A simple warning for all those gold bulls! Have a look at the COT for gold and silver for today and then have a look at what occurred last time the commercial shorts were at these levels back in February 09. Carnage in both metals resulting in a 12% drop in gold and 18% drop in silver over the following 3 weeks."

My comment:
We all know the commercials are infallible traders. When they go short everyone else invested in gold in deference to their infallibility should sell gold. I'm down on my knees now kissing their feet.

PhillW posted:
"... gold and silver are fighting in areas of heavy resistance and the fact that the volatility in the USD is increasing meaning maybe a bottom for this move for the USD is close at hand."

My comment:
You seem to have ignored the consistent failure of the US dollar to break out upwards from resistance. Why? Could it be that you want to pretend that trillions of these useless pieces of paper masquerading as real money that holds its value are being printed at no real cost?

PhillW posted:
".. gold/silver bulls could always cling to the hope that this time will be different which is the normal catch cry for the last 8 years...You ride it up then you ride it down!"

My comment:
Gold has steadily risen in price over the last 8 years. In fact it has risen in price year on year every year. That being the case it's logically impossible for you to have ridden gold up from US$250 and back all the way down to US$250 today. Are you seriously trying to tell us that the US economuy and the world financial system and teh amount of US dollars in circulation is the same as eight years ago> Surely not. Anyone with a modicum of intelligenvce can see thins are very different. We are now in a period of mass government paper printing in the West like never before in history. But you're welcome to say this is NOT different.

Good luck sticking to opinion no matter how many ignorant people who have given up counting the trillions of US dollars being added to the financial system and given up counting all the failed businesses being bailed out by this printed money might say you look a little foolish.

We all know they are the real fools. Of course we all know you can print your way to prosperity. Of course ywe all know you can remove all these trillions from the system just at the right time. So it won't be too hot or too cold.

Mind you, some of the recipients of this money won't be so accomodating handing the money back. Like the filthy rich winners of AIG's losing derivatives bets. Remember big money went into AIG through one door and straight out another door to pay the winners!

PhillW posted:
"Gold isn't going over $1000 and holding that target in any sustainable way until you see the HUI break above its 520 point top in March 08."

My comment:
I agree that we'll see the HUI break above 520 and stay above that level for an extended period of time. Maybe now I understand what you mean by "You ride it up then you ride it down!" That will of course happen to investors who use technical analysis to buy gold shares around their trading highs, such as those who are waiting for a rise of over 36% in the HUI before they commit money into the gold equities. Gold equities always have and always will be volatile. Even more so for investors/traders who buy in boom and sell in gloom rather than the other way around.