to burst through $930?, page-12

Parrot,

You said;

My comment:
Gold has steadily risen in price over the last 8 years. In fact it has risen in price year on year every year. That being the case it's logically impossible for you to have ridden gold up from US$250 and back all the way down to US$250 today. Are you seriously trying to tell us that the US economuy and the world financial system and teh amount of US dollars in circulation is the same as eight years ago> Surely not. Anyone with a modicum of intelligenvce can see thins are very different. We are now in a period of mass government paper printing in the West like never before in history. But you're welcome to say this is NOT different.

Good luck sticking to opinion no matter how many ignorant people who have given up counting the trillions of US dollars being added to the financial system and given up counting all the failed businesses being bailed out by this printed money might say you look a little foolish.

We all know they are the real fools. Of course we all know you can print your way to prosperity. Of course ywe all know you can remove all these trillions from the system just at the right time. So it won't be too hot or too cold.

My comment.

Statistics can be manipulated to suit all sides of an argument. You have given me the stats that gold the great investment has risen every year since 2001 from its low of US$250. May I ask you whether you brought gold then and if so what the AUD/USD exchange rate was? I'll save you the hassel by providing those statistics.

Apr 01 - Gold US$255.50 / Gold AUD$533
Apr 01 - AUD/USD exchange rate 47.73 ($2.09)
Apr 01 - Buy 100 oz of gold for AUD$53,300.00

Or

Apr 01 - Invest AUD $53,300 in a term deposit @ 7%

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Mar 08 - Gold All time high of US$1032.40
Mar 08 - AUD/USD exchange rate 93.82 ($1.07)
Mar 08 - 100 oz investment worth AUD$107,000.00

Or

Mar 08 - $53,300 investment worth $85,588.00 @7% compound interest

******************************************************

Jul 09 - Gold US$931.80
Jul 09 - AUD/USD exchange rate 79.65 ($1.23)
Jul 09 - 100 oz investment worth $123,000.00

Or

Jul 09 - $53,300 investment worth $93,457.00

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Gold has only outperformed cash by 25% in the second greatest PM bull market in history.

Now if you purchased shares in LGL or NCM in 2001 rather than buying bullion your investment would be worth;

Apr 01 - LGL 0.59c / NCM $3.30
Apr 01 - $53,500 buys 90677 LGL or 16151 NCM
Jul 09 - LGL shares worth $263K / NCM shares worth $489K

Investment in gold bullion and shares mentioned above would have realised greater returns if the gold bulls did not take every crack pot article on gold-eagle etc as gospel. Gold peaked in AUD terms at $1565.00 but now sits at $1162.00. NCM and LGL share price highs were $40.50 and $4.45. So my statement ride them up and then ride them down is very relevant. All die hard goldies have watched their paper profits fall by between 25-30%. That's at todays prices! NCM and LGL have been a lot lower in the last 12 months and profit loss has been closer to 40-45%. That's equivelent to sitting on your hands and riding out a crash the proportion of which only two or three others in history exceeded! Gold now sits just above critical $912 support. The gold bulls are hanging on the reverse H&S playing out for salvation. The smart money will be accumulating on the $1033 break if it occurs soon or accumulating when a bottom is confirmed after breaking the $912 support. The dumb money are buying no matter where the price is because they have that Alf Fields $10K target inprinted in their brain. Unfortunately, as shown above Alf Field could be right but if the move is a result of a collapse in the USD then don't expect the 10 bagger that US citizens will get. The gold bull will run on inflation and hand in hand with a commodity bull. Guess what, the AUD is traded on forex as a commodity currency. If inflation gets as bad as the gold bull doomsdayers say then the best ride may be on the AUD/USD exchange. If the USD was to fall to 40 on the TWI as Mchugh has as his first target then the AUD would trade at about $2.50. In that case gold would have to trade at US$3900.00 just to get back to the AUD$1565.00 high we hit earlier this year.