SEA 0.00% 16.5¢ sundance energy australia limited

to guttedsquid and other lt holders, page-2

  1. 5,811 Posts.
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    Firstly, regarding the Pink Sheet scenario. I am not a full bottle on it other than it is a secondary listing where the company SEA doesn;t have the stringent reporting criteria that a true ADR has. Its a cheaper alternative. US based buyers sometimes don;t like it for this reason.
    I am not sure how the shares things works bewteen to the 2 countries. If you go to the pink sheet exchange there is some info on it there. I wonder if SEA are keen for a proper listing. I would have to think they are but have no idea really. It may help with sp appreciation as it has with SSN makeing it more accessible to US investors.

    You are dead right about the lack of exposure , but that hasn;t concerned me too much. They certainly have had some press this year but not heaps. There probably is still the perception of soveriegnty and the risk associated with that. I think that also the fact we are dealing with , well at least up till mid last year the abscence of a similar market in AUS - that is shale. We know that has changed with Beach in the Cooper and off the coast of WA. That has helped our cause.

    Valuation wise, like many stocks is undervalued. Current valuations I have seen range from $1.22 to $2.25

    Has it got along way to go - absolutely.

    I have been with the stock from 35c 5 years ago to see it go to 70c and then down to 3c and back again. Needless to say I loaded up down below and now have an average around 30c on volume. I have traded it a bit last year on its run up but less recently but have never sold my core holding which is sizable. I did buy more just last Thursday at 93c when I posted the goings on for this week and next which I think will be pivotal.

    The reserves report should be huge and expect reratings and further upgrades from broking houses.

    US broking houses rate shale differently and so if they were to value SEA I would suggest it would be much higher than the perception here.

    This year is a watershed year in that all the prep work done has now set them up to develop a very impressive set of acres.

    Some of the negatives are oil price which for now is working for us. SEA is highly leveraged to oil price and if the oil price stays high for some months then it will be very fruitful . Anything over $75 per barrel will keep the company very strong.

    I am not sure if this is a negative but their smaller equity stakes are seen as negative by some. It certainly spreads the risk. I would have loved them doing the multiple frac stuff in their last campaign when they held up to 45% stakes in many wells. Maybe in the future these wells may be reworked to further stimulate the wells.

    Positives are cash position and well funded, standing within the community. They are bed with some of the biggest players. Small capital structure 280 mill shares.
    Now in the All Ords.
    Upcoming program 100+ wells this year. Higher equity stakes in Niobrara 15 - 36%. If Niobrara comes off it will be bigger than their Bakken acreage and we could see valuations well north of $2.

    Hope this helps a bit. I think you have made a good decision and although entering at a much higher level the certainty of things now happening are set in place which was the risk down lower.



 
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