VAU vault minerals limited

TO HEDGE OR NOT TO HEDGE

  1. 122 Posts.
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    I know hedging has been done to death but with the quarterly due shortly I thought I might look into Vaults hedging a bit deeper.
    Using simple math with all things being equal to include the following as we presently know it to be:
    Australian Gold Price $3,950.00 / Gold Production 400,000 OZ annual / AISC $2,450.00 (High Side re Vault publications).
    Estimated profit on Spot price: $1,500.00

    Looking at 2025 Hedges only and what we would achieve paying out hedges.
    2025 Profits on sales including Hedging and profit after AISC.
    H1 2025 Hedge 76,700 OZ x $331.00 profit from hedge = $25.4 million
    H2 2025 Hedge 74,962 OZ x $486.00 Profit from Hedge = $36.4 million
    H1 2025 Unhedged 123,300 OZ x $1,500.00 Profit on Spot = $184.95 million
    H2 2025 Unhedged 125,038 OZ x $1,500.00 Profit on Spot = $187.5 million
    Total Annual Profit including Hedging = $434.25 Million

    2025 Profits on sales with hedges removed: Re paid in Gold ounces not cash spot price:
    H1 2025 Forward supply gold ounces due:
    H1 2025 + H2 2025 = 76,700 + 74,962 = 151,662 Ounces
    H1 + H2 Average profit on Hedged Gold sold = 151,662 OZ x $400.00 (Average Hedge Profit) = $60.6 Million
    H1 Unhedged Gold Sales: 200,000 OZ - 151,662 (Used) = 48,338 OZ x $1,500.00 = $72.5 Million
    H2 100% Unhedged Gold Sales: 200,000 OZ x $1,500.00 = $300 Million
    Total Annual Profit with H2 2025 Hedging Closed = $433.1 Million

    In the immediate for 2025 there is not much gained by paying out the 2025 hedges with Gold Produced.
    Having a look at other recent Gold Miners paying out their hedge book either in full or part they are using perception to sell the point.
    Terms like unhedged or hedge repayments not due till December 31 2025 in reality has not done anything to their bottom line as they had to either use cash from their books or Gold from their inventory. They will gain in the future I admit as long as Gold holds or runs beyond their inventory valuation at the time.

    At present Our / Vaults hedges are balanced with current spot prices in Australian dollars. Should Gold in Terms of Australian dollars move North or we manage to reduce AISC then yes forgoing some production sales (up to 1/2) to reduce Hedges may make sense but as it stands it is balanced.
    Please let me know if this does not make sense but I think reducing the Hedge book at present will only help with perception not the bottom line.
 
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